The odds are stacked against the Indiana Fever. After welcoming about 9 new players as the opening day roster crumbled, HC Stephanie White still has to figure out the perfect group. They don’t have Caitlin Clark or Sophie Cunningham, and their guard lineup is weeks old. Then, based on the final seeding, they stand poised to face either of the two top 3 teams, coming in with a hot streak. But in the chaos, the Fever might just have found some relief.

The WNBA’s top eight teams are itching for tip-off on Sunday. While New York, Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Minnesota are obvious favorites to win it, Stephanie White has asked not to count out Indiana, considering just how resilient the team has been this year. But they need a perfect setup, the perfect conditions, in order to be effective even as an incomplete unit. Luckily, Cathy Engelbert came in clutch for the Fever this year.

On the latest episode of Show Me Something with Sophie Cunningham and West Wilson, the Indiana Fever star drew attention to recent rule changes in the league that might benefit the team greatly. “Something they have changed for this year, which maybe a lot of fans don’t know, is like last year, you would play, say we get matched up with Atlanta, we would play the first two games there, and if we steal one, then we come home. This year it’s one there, one here, one there. So one-on-one,” she explained, and at first glance? It doesn’t seem like anything special.

However, one important factor to take into consideration is that the WNBA’s first round is a best-of-three. So, having two back-to-back home games would have given one team a massive advantage and a chance to put an end to the series before it even began. With the new format, the Indiana Fever would have to head back to Atlanta for game 3, but that’s better than losing in two! And why can’t the Fever win in Atlanta as well? Gone are the days when home games spelled doom for the opposition. Especially for Indiana, the crowd is going to show up no matter where.

Not to mention, there’s another distinct advantage to the new system, especially if Indiana plays Atlanta… Timezones. The less travel time, the better. “I think I’m really leaning towards Atlanta because you’re in the same time zone. The flight is like an hour 15. Like if you get in Vegas, it’s different time zone, a longer flight.” Cunningham said, pointing out exactly why the Dream would be an ideal matchup for them.

Sophie Cunningham’s not the only person predicting a win for the Indiana Fever, as former players like Ice Young have also been vocal about Indiana’s capabilities. However, ESPN’s statistical models show a completely different story about the Fever. Let’s take a look at what numbers the broadcasting company has come up with, and how they’ll affect Indiana’s playoff chances.

Sophie Cunningham’s Indiana Fever predictions broken down statistically

Everyone expected the Indiana Fever to be a solid contender this season. Amber Cox and Kelly Krauskopf surrounded Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell, and Aliyah Boston with some veteran talent ahead of the year, but things got bad when the injuries started piling up. We lost Clark, then we lost Cunningham, then Colson and McDonald, and finally Bibby. To put it simply, the team was a mess.

But even two weeks ago, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index had the Indiana Fever marked with an 88% chance to make the playoffs, 28.1% chance to reach the semi-finals, 10.7% chance to make the finals, and a 2.3% chance to win the championship. These might look like slim odds, but considering the injury scenario, they were quite good.

The aforementioned predictions had come in even before Clark was ruled out for the season, but surprisingly, they’ve only gone up since. Currently, after the Fever was a lock for the playoffs, the numbers show a similar, yet improved story. Indiana now has a 37% chance to make it to the semi-finals, 15.7% to make it to the finals, and 2.9% to actually win the chip.

Sure, the numbers didn’t improve by leaps and bounds, but they did get better. There’s no denying this could be a team to keep an eye on.