The Atlanta Dream and the Indiana Fever split the season series 2-2, with all four being played before the midpoint of the season. The Fever were given a rude awakening by the Dream almost immediately. They were the ones who handed Stephanie White’s squad its first loss. “We didn’t handle their physicality,” White had said after the game. Since then, Fever have lost 5 players to season-ending injuries, hampering their squad further. Now facing them in round 1 of the playoffs, Stephanie White is demanding a change in their script. 

Just a day before the series is set to begin, White admitted that the Dream might not be as favorable a matchup as some believe, perhaps even a tougher test than others in the pool.“Their size at mostly all positions has been a challenge for us,” White said. The Fever, already bruised and battered by injuries and worn down by “physicality” all season, may be accustomed to the grind. But taking down the Dream twice in a three-game series will demand serious adjustments, the very kind White further outlined.

White said, “We’ve got to be really disciplined. You know, we’ve got to make sure we find the right shot on the offensive end. We’ve got to make sure the ball continues to move, and we get defenses in rotation.”

The Indiana Fever have relied on their offensive end of the floor to pick up some slack from their defense. At an offensive rating of 106.2, they are the third-best offense in the league, but the question of creativity still lingers. White and Co. have managed to reproduce Caitlin Clark’s assist numbers via teamwork to some extent. Their offense is held by their amazing efficiency from the field ( 45.6%) rather than from their ball movement, as the Fever have just 20.6 assists per game with only 65.7% of their points coming off them.

A late-season uptick to 67.7% showed progress, but breaking down Karl Smesko’s No. 2-ranked defense will require another level entirely. And that’s just half the battle. Other gaps still loom large, and as White noted, sealing those cracks remains central to their playoff hopes.

Stephanie White further told the media, “And then defensively, we’ve got to be solid. You know, we can’t afford to; we’ve got to protect the paint certainly, but we can’t afford to allow teams to get a lot of threes and a lot of free throw attempts against us. We’re not matching them threes for threes anymore with the lineup that we have. So, we’ve really got to guard the three-point line and keep them off the free-throw line.”

Indiana had a modest defense in the regular season, conceding 81.5 points per game with a defensive rating of 101.8, which ranked in the middle of the pack at 7th. Atlanta is the second-best offense in the league that heavily leans on its scoring in the paint. A whopping 43.8% of their points come from under the basket. An even bigger issue that White pointed out was the outside shooting problem. With Clark and Sophie Cunningham, the Fever had the firepower to go band-for-band with 3-pointers. Clark made 2.2 per game, which is still the second best in the team, despite her mid-season drought. Cunningham made 1.7 per game, which is the third best in the Fever squad. Kelsey Mitchell is shelling out 2.5 threes, but one shooter is not enough to rival Atlanta. Things have changed, and the style needs to be adapted for the available players. 

As a team, Fever makes only 8.3 3-pointers per game as compared to the Dream’s 9.6. They have managed to lock down their perimeter so far, conceding only 7.1 threes per game, which is the second best in the league. Guess who is the first? Yes, it’s the Atlanta Dream, conceding only 6.6 threes a game. It will be tough going head-to-head in a three-point battle, but the Fever must find a way through the Dream’s wall. 

Expert Prediction Leans Away From Stephanie White’s Indiana Fever 

The Indiana Fever were always going to be the underdogs for the first round, considering they finished in the bottom half of the top 8. At one point, Indiana was going to be paired up against the Minnesota Lynx, which is why the Dream feels better. However, there’s not that much gap as multiple indicators are overwhelmingly favoring the Dream.  

“Indiana will have an issue with Atlanta’s post tandem of Brionna Jones and Brittney Griner, especially considering the Fever lost some height with those injuries. The Fever could salvage one win in this series, but they likely couldn’t get past the surging Dream.” Wrote Chloe Paterson, one of the premier Fever beat reporters. In addition, ESPN is giving the Dream a 66.9% chance to beat the Fever in the first round of the WNBA playoffs. 

8 of the Dream’s squad are 6 feet+, and they feature center Brittney Griner, the tallest player in the WNBA at six-foot-eight, as a weapon coming off the bench. Brionna Jones presents another pressing size-related threat to Stephanie White’s plans, further tilting the odds towards the Dream. Atlanta sits as the market’s hammer around -325 to win round 1. However, this entire season seems to be the Fever playing against the odds. They were given a “bad hand” with injuries that continued into the playoffs, but they have persevered. Like Powers said, “This team has been resilient, gritty, and I’m so blessed. It’s time to surprise some people (in the playoffs).”