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If we still believe in normalcy, we are roughly 10-12 weeks away from the WNBA draft. But somehow, we still don’t know if we’ll get to watch Paige Bueckers and Caitlin Clark next season, because the CBA discussions are making no real progress. At this point last year, fans were arguing about draft picks, not wondering if the league would even tip off. Despite all the uncertainty, the league has announced the 2026 season schedule, and that’s made things awkward.

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The WNBA wants everyone to believe that the season will begin on May 8, but this isn’t as straightforward as it seems. Rachel DeMita broke down what appears to be a two-fold problem.

“The Indiana Fever will play their first preseason game against the New York Liberty on April 25, and then they will play another preseason game on April 30 against the Dallas Wings in Indiana,” DeMita said on Courtside Club. “The WNBA has definitely shifted from the Caitlin Clark-Angel Reese rivalry to now the Caitlin Clark-Paige Bueckers rivalry. It seems like they are trying to get these two matched up against one another as much as they possibly can.”

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To make the league more attractive, the WNBA appears to have shifted its strategy. The Clark vs. Reese rivalry had been the league’s main draw for two seasons, and it delivered huge numbers. Their June 2024 game drew 2.25 million viewers on CBS, and last season’s opener climbed to 2.7 million on ESPN.

Yet the league has decided to move in a different direction. Fever vs. Sky matchups are down to three meetings, compared to four and five in the last two seasons, respectively. However, last season was just one blowout win after another in Clark’s favor, dampening the fierce contest with Reese.

The upcoming preseason schedule makes it even clearer. The Wings are playing the Fever, which means we are guaranteed at least four Clark vs. Bueckers matchups this season. But even if both players stay fit, those games aren’t guaranteed to pull strong numbers. The Wings are coming off a disaster campaign, and Bueckers was their only bright spot. The team has no room to be considered an underdog, especially when the Golden State Valkyries had such a good year.

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Aren’t we moving a little too fast here?

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“Now these preseason games are in April, the season starts in the first week of May, but there’s also training camp that has to start before all of this,” DeMita further explained. “They’re going to be back in training camp at least a few weeks before this game. So, as you can see, everything is getting super murky, and it’s messing up a lot of different things.”

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Time is clearly running out for the league and the players to reach an agreement. According to Annie Costabile’s latest update, GMs still don’t know what the expansion draft rules will be. More than half the league will be in free agency. Nobody really knows what that regular draft is going to look like, either.

We still do not know how many players each team will even be allowed to protect ahead of the expansion draft. What are teams supposed to protect if three-quarters of their roster is hitting free agency?

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There are so many things the WNBA needs to fix, but time is clearly running out. And so far, the league hasn’t accepted the players’ current demands.

What do Caitlin Clark and the WNBPA want?

Both sides remain miles apart. The latest proposal will give players roughly 70% of net revenue, increasing from 65% to 80% over the full term. Yet none of it is guaranteed. The league’s net-revenue system does not guarantee owners a profit, meaning teams could be forced to absorb losses if revenues fall or expenses rise beyond their control, per Sportico.

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The players want a deal that gives them 30% of gross revenue. It is much simpler to manage than the WNBA’s current model, even if it is not as complex as those of other leagues. In that model, the other 70% would remain with the league to cover expenses and operations, without deducting costs upfront.

But the league has not reached out about it yet, and time is running out.

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Players have already voiced their frustration about the schedule release. Azura Stevens dropped a string of question marks under an Instagram post about the WNBA schedule, and A’ja Wilson posted a movie clip of a guy banging a table with the caption, “Me looking at the schedule release.”

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If things do not improve from here, it is hard to imagine a future where they avoid a lockout. However, even if the season does happen, there is no realistic scenario in which everything gets finalized in time for a smooth May 8 start, as the league wants.

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