Seventeen long months, that’s how long it took for the players and the league to finally find common ground on the WNBA’s new CBA. For a while, the tension felt real. A lockout didn’t seem far off, and the possibility of missed games lingered in the background. Now that the cloud has cleared. But if anything, this is where the real chaos begins. A free agency window looms, with over 80% of the league potentially hitting the market, all eager to capitalize on the new CBA benefits. And just around the corner, a fresh draft class arrives.

But before everything kicks off, we start with a major turning point for the league. The WNBA is set to welcome its newest franchises, the Toronto Tempo and the Portland Fire, and as part of that process, both teams will be given an expansion draft to help build their rosters. The draft is scheduled for Friday, April 3, just hours before the 2026 NCAA Women’s Final Four.

In this piece, we zoom in on the player pool these teams will be watching closely, breaking down which Western Conference stars we expect to be protected and which names could be left exposed and up for grabs. We start with the defending champions.

Las Vegas Aces

Protected:

• A’ja Wilson
• Jackie Young
• Chelsea Gray
• NaLyssa Smith
• Aaliyah Nye

Unprotected

• Kierstan Bell
• Jewell Loyd
• Kiah Stokes
• Megan Gustafson
• Dana Evans
• Cheyenne Parker-Tyus

Last season was truly a special one for the Las Vegas Aces. Twelve games in, they had just five wins to show for it. For a team coached by Becky Hammon, a losing record felt almost unthinkable. But when you have A’ja Wilson on your team, you always have a way out. She led from the front, lifted the team when it mattered most, and dragged them out of the slump.

They went on to win their third championship in four years, and A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young were all central to that run. That alone makes them automatic selections on the protection list. But this title push wouldn’t have been possible without the impact of NaLyssa Smith following her arrival, which makes her another clear-cut protection candidate ahead of the expansion draft.

That meant we had to choose between Kierstan Bell and Aaliyah Nye for the final protection spot. And with the big three likely to command significant money, it makes sense to balance the roster with more affordable contracts. That’s where Nye gets the nod, as her rookie deal provides the Aces with valuable financial flexibility.

The likes of Jewell Loyd and Kierstan Bell will be in high demand during the expansion draft. But will any team be willing to hand her a max deal? She didn’t have the best season with the Aces, but when it comes to winning, her track record is hard to ignore. A perfect 10-0 record in WNBA Finals makes her as close to a good-luck charm as it gets.

Minnesota Lynx

Protected:

• Dorka Juhasz
• Napheesa Collier
• Kayla McBride
• Courtney Williams
• Alanna Smith

Unprotected

• Bridget Carleton
• Anastasiia Olairi Kosu
• Maria Kliundikova
• Jaylyn Sherrod
• Camryn Taylor
• Maia Hirsch
• Aubrey Griffin
• DiJonai Carrington
• Jessica Shepard
• Natisha Hiedeman

The Minnesota Lynx were widely expected to win the championship last season, and for most of the year, it really felt like they would. They finished the regular season with the best record, looking every bit like the team to beat. But things unraveled in the playoffs. After losing Napheesa Collier to injury, they couldn’t carry that momentum forward and eventually fell to the Phoenix Mercury.

Questions will naturally be asked about whether the Minnesota Lynx should finally break things up after another season ending in disappointment. But knowing Cheryl Reeve, the focus will likely remain on running it back with her core. The challenge, however, lies in keeping that group together. We have most of the starters on the protection list: Napheesa Collier, Kayla McBride, Courtney Williams, and Alanna Smith,  but with all of them set to hit unrestricted free agency, bringing everyone back won’t be easy.

But that is a discussion for another time. Right now, the Lynx face a dilemma about who takes that final protection spot. No matter how it plays out, a few prime unrestricted free agents will be left exposed, giving the expansion teams a real window to capitalize. Watch out for Bridget Carleton. The Toronto Tempo would certainly want a Canadian presence on their roster, and she fits that perfectly.

As for the rest of the decisions, with DiJonai Carrington dealing with injury concerns and likely to command a max deal, we see Dorka Juhasz as the smarter option to protect.

Phoenix Mercury

Protected

• Monique Akoa Makani
• Natasha Mack
• Kahleah Copper
• Alyssa Thomas
• Satou Sabally

Unprotected

• Kalani Brown
• Kitija Laksa
• Lexi Held
• Kathryn Westbeld
• Helena Pueyo
• Klara Holm
• Julia Ayrault
• Sami Whitcomb
• DeWanna Bonner

Every player we’ve listed in the protection group has earned their place for last season’s runners-up. Alyssa Thomas and Satou Sabally are no-brainers, especially with both still eligible to be cored, which would make them incredibly attractive to an expansion team. Then there’s Kahleah Copper. She was the only starter who stayed when everything around the team shifted last season, and that alone makes her a lock for protection.

Add in her on-court production and the reality that any expansion team would likely have to offer her a max deal, and the decision becomes even more straightforward.

Monique Akoa Makani is another no-brainer. As a rookie, she started 40 games while averaging 7.7 points and 2.2 assists, showing exactly why the team will continue to invest in her. And when it comes to that final spot, why wouldn’t you lock in one of your best rebounders if you have the choice? That’s where Natasha Mack gets the nod.

The likes of Lexi Held and Kathryn Westbeld will be in high demand this expansion draft.

Seattle Storm

Protected

• Dominique Malonga
• Jordan Horston
• Gabby Williams
• Skylar Diggins
• Ezi Magbegor

Unprotected

• Lexie Brown C
• Nika Muhl C
• Zia Cooke Res
• Mackenzie Holmes Res
• Nneka Ogwumike
• Brittney Sykes
• Erica Wheeler
• Tiffany Mitchell
• Katie Lou Samuelson

The Seattle Storm clearly sees Dominique Malonga and Jordan Horston as their future cornerstones, and rightly so. Gabby Williams and Skylar Diggins were the heartbeat of the team’s defense, making them easy protection picks. And then there’s Ezi Magbegor, still just 26 and a long-time anchor in the Storm’s frontcourt. Put it all together, and the five protection spots almost pick themselves.

This brings us to the real debate: leaving Nneka Ogwumike and Brittney Sykes unprotected. Skylar Diggins and Ogwumike are both 35-year-old veterans and still playing at a very high level. But with both having reached the core limit, selecting them as UFAs wouldn’t offer as much long-term value for teams like the Toronto Tempo or Portland Fire.

Because of that, there’s still a strong chance they find their way back to the Seattle Storm or use free agency to land in favorable situations, rather than being cornerstone picks in the expansion draft. Also watch out for the likes of Erica Wheeler, Nika Muhl, and Lexie Brown in the expansion draft; they could all be in high demand.

Golden State Valkyries

Protected

• Carla Leite
• Iliana Rupert
• Janelle Salaun
• Juste Jocyte
• Veronica Burton

Unprotected

• Kate Martin
• Cecilia Zandalasini
• Laeticia Amihere
• Kaitlyn Chen
• Maria Conde
• Tiffany Hayes
• Kayla Thornton
• Temi Fagbenle
• Monique Billings

The Golden State Valkyries were one of the biggest beneficiaries of last year’s expansion draft, with the advantage of being the only team selecting from the player pool. This time, though, it’s a completely different story. With both the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire in the mix, we’re set to see a much more competitive battle for talent. And because of that, the Valkyries’ history-making squad from last season might not stay intact for long.

Protecting Veronica Burton after the season she had at the point last year feels like a no-brainer, even if she’s about to get a lot more expensive. With more money coming into the league, there’s also growing optimism that fewer international players will skip the WNBA, which makes decisions around Janelle Salaun and Iliana Rupert much easier.

Then there’s Juste Jocyte. As last year’s first-round pick, she’s clearly viewed as part of the Golden State Valkyries’ future, which should comfortably land her on the protection list as well.

You might be wondering: what about Kayla Thornton? The Golden State Valkyries’ first All-Star feels like an obvious name for the protection list. But not for us. The expanded role she took on after arriving from the Liberty did lead to a dip in efficiency, and at 33, there are fair questions about durability, especially coming off a significant injury.

Then there’s the contract situation. As an unrestricted free agent, unless the Valkyries are ready to core her and potentially offer a supermax deal, there’s no guarantee she stays.

Los Angeles Sparks

Protected

• Rickea Jackson
• Cameron Brink
• Kelsey Plum
• Dearica Hamby
• Azurá Stevens

Unprotected

• Rae Burrell
• Sarah Ashlee Barker
• Sania Feagin
• Alissa Pili
• Julie Vanloo
• Julie Allemand
• Emma Cannon

Last season ended in disappointment for the Los Angeles Sparks, especially after all the hype surrounding the arrival of Kelsey Plum. But the way they finished the year offered a glimpse of what this group can become, giving fans real reason for optimism heading into the new season. With that in mind, we expect the Sparks to prioritize continuity and keep their core intact.

You could argue that keeping the core of a team that finished 21–23 last season isn’t the smartest move. But when you look at the Los Angeles Sparks roster, some names are simply non-negotiable. Cameron Brink, Rickea Jackson, Kelsey Plum, and Dearica Hamby are all locks to be protected.

That leaves one final spot, and there are a few directions they could go in, with options like Stevens, Burrell, and Barker in the mix. But for us, Stevens gets the nod. She’s coming off her best season yet, finishing second in the Most Improved Player race, making her the most logical choice to round out the protection list.

Dallas Wings

Protected

• Paige Bueckers
• Maddy Siegrist
• JJ Quinerly
• Luisa Geiselsoder
• Diamond Miller

Unprotected

• Arike Ogunbowale
• Aziaha James
• Li Yueru
• Haley Jones
• Grace Berger
• Awak Kuier
• Lou Lopez Senechal
• Tyasha Harris
• Myisha Hines-Allen

All that Paige Bueckers hype ultimately led to a disappointing outcome, with the Dallas Wings losing their head coach and finishing at the bottom of the standings. With Jose Fernandez stepping in to replace Chris Koclanes, expect a very different-looking Wings team in 2026. And with that kind of reset, there’s a real possibility that franchise star Arike Ogunbowale could be playing elsewhere by May.

She’s one of the few unrestricted free agents truly worth a max contract. Arike Ogunbowale can flat-out get buckets. Efficiency may not always be her strength, but shot creation at that level is a premium skill, especially for an expansion team trying to build an identity. That’s not to say the Toronto Tempo or Portland Fire would make a high-usage guard their first priority in the expansion draft, but there’s no denying the kind of offensive firepower Ogunbowale brings to the table and could be in demand.

With the Dallas Wings holding the first pick in the upcoming draft, there’s a strong expectation they could land Azzi Fudd, which only adds another layer to the Arike Ogunbowale situation. Bringing in a young guard like Fudd would signal a clear shift toward the future, making it easier to move on from a high-usage veteran.

The direction seems obvious. The Wings are leaning into youth development, and players like JJ Quinerly and Diamond Miller fit that identity perfectly.