Caitlin Clark is just one step away from capturing the first trophy of her WNBA career. But standing in her way are the reigning champions Minnesota Lynx, led by none other than Napheesa Collier. Yes, we’re only hours away from the Commissioner’s Cup final. You can expect the Target Center in Minneapolis to be electric and packed with fans. Everyone is eager to see the two MVP favorites battle it out for ultimate glory. But hold that excitement, because if this reporter’s prediction turns out to be true, it spells trouble for the Indiana Fever.

Ahead of the highly anticipated Commissioner’s Cup Final, the Indiana Fever’s social media team dropped a photo that got fans buzzing. It featured Caitlin Clark in full game gear, front and center with her teammates, with the caption: “eyes on the prize. tomorrow we battle for the Commissioner’s Cup Championship at 8 p.m. against the Lynx.” Naturally, this sparked speculation that Clark would be in the lineup. And this came after fans’ excitement had already hit another level when WNBA Commissioner Cathy Engelbert called to congratulate Clark on being named an All-Star captain. But it was Clark’s confident response to Engelbert’s well-wishes for the upcoming game against the Lynx that really let hopes fly. “Yeah, we about to get that dub, Cathy,” Clark said. Yet, those hopes could not soar for long as the situation took an unexpected turn.

When Coach White was asked about an update on Clark’s injury status following the training last night, this is what she had to say. “We still don’t know. It’s a day-to-day thing. Did some stuff at practice today, making sure we don’t have any setbacks. We got to be smart about this. We’ll evaluate tomorrow morning at shootaround.” And taking her comments into account, Rachel DeMita shared a prediction that might not sit well with many fans on the eve of such a big game. But DeMita’s assessment isn’t just a casual guess—it’s grounded in both her own observations and the Fever’s handling of Clark’s groin injury over the last week. Speaking on her YouTube channel, DeMita said:

“A lot of people are wondering, will Caitlin Clark play in this game? As you guys know, she has been pulled for a groin injury, and the team, the coaching staff, and Caitlin continue to say that it’s day-to-day. She was in practice the past few days, but it was just reported today that she only partially practiced today and they have a game tomorrow, which indicates to me that she probably won’t be playing tomorrow. I feel like if you’re not going full speed in practice, then it’s probably unlikely that they just throw her in for a final game in the Commissioner’s Cup when she hasn’t ramped up properly. I also hope that they don’t do that.”

This concern isn’t unfounded. Returning to high-level competition too quickly after a soft-tissue injury—especially one affecting mobility like a groin strain—can significantly increase the risk of reinjury or even more severe muscle damage. With Clark being the franchise centerpiece, the Fever may be wise to exercise caution, prioritizing long-term stability over short-term silverware. On that note, DeMita continued:

“And I’ve told you guys my thoughts on this injury last week. I think that they should rest her as long as they possibly need to. She has a long career ahead, and you don’t want this injury to continue jumping around her leg and then it turns into something more serious. So we will just have to see.”

She’s right—there’s a lot riding on Clark’s health. One 2022 study in the British Journal of Sports Medicine reported a 31% reinjury rate for athletes who returned to play within 7–10 days of initial groin strain, with recurrence often affecting movement efficiency and lateral agility, both critical to a guard like Clark. That concern is amplified when you consider Clark’s workload. She currently ranks first in the WNBA in minutes played (636) and second in usage rate among rookies, per Her Hoop Stats. On top of that, she leads the league in total distance covered per game, a byproduct of her playstyle that includes nonstop off-ball movement, deep shooting range, and constant transition pushes.

That context frames DeMita’s caution not as alarmist, but as deeply rational—Clark’s body is under an elite-level load, and mismanaging even a minor soft tissue injury could derail her momentum and durability. So, the prediction does make a lot of sense. According to Brett Bensley, Caitlin Clark was spotted at practice following the Fever’s impressive 94-86 win over the Dallas Wings. However, the Clark Report on X later clarified that the superstar was only able to partially participate in training. So, it remains to be seen if she will be available for tomorrow’s game.

And if missing the Commissioners Cup means she could stay injury-free for games that actually count, wouldn’t fans take just that? On top of that, if Clark rushes her return, we could see a repeat of her recent struggles! She went just 1-for-23 from beyond the arc and shot 25.6% in her final three games before the groin injury.

That said, not all hope is lost for the Fever. They can still win against the Lynx! WNBA legend has given her own pointers, which could help the Fever win!

Sue Bird gives the perfect game plan for Indiana to win without Caitlin Clark

An 8-8 record to start the season isn’t something to be proud of. But, thankfully, four of those wins came during the Commissioner’s Cup play, and they were enough to earn them a spot in the final against the defending champions. But with Clark’s availability still under wraps, can they win without her? After all, Clark or no Clark, the Fever would want to do their all to pocket that prize money.

Well, Sue Bird has given her input as to how they can achieve that! “Can Indiana, who is 11th in opponents free-throw attempts, stop fouling Minnesota?” Bird said in her podcast. “Because you cannot—you cannot—give Minnesota easy points. You gotta keep them off the free-throw line. Also, can Indiana, who is in the bottom half of the league in turnovers, limit them against a defense that is third in forcing turnovers? Those are two quick areas you can keep your eye on.”

The Fever are giving away 23.3 free throws while also committing 13.4 turnovers per game. To win against the Lynx, they will definitely have to do a much better job than this. However, Bird also warned the team saying that Clark’s availability is the biggest factor. So, they will actually have to pull out all the stops if she is not on the floor.

Do you see the Fever winning against the Lynx without Caitlin Clark? Let us know in the comments down below!