Iga Swiatek, still chasing her 1st title since lifting her fourth French Open crown in June 2024, has walked a road paved with near misses, five semifinal runs, yet no finish line crossed. After weeks away from competition following her 26-match winning streak’s abrupt end at the hands of Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka, the Polish powerhouse returned to grass with fire in her stride. Now, she stands on the brink of her 1st final of the year at Bad Homburg. But to get there, she must overcome a fierce obstacle: Jasmine Paolini, the Italian sensation and reigning Italian Open champion. Can Swiatek rise again?

Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini: Preview

At the AO, she marched into the semis only to be halted by the eventual champion, Madison Keys. Then came Roland Garros, her fortress. But even there, she stumbled in the same round, falling to the Belarusian top seed. Now, with the grass-court major looming, the question echoes: can Swiatek finally turn the corner at Wimbledon?

Much of that answer may lie in her run at the Bad Homburg Open. After receiving a 1st-round bye, Swiatek stepped onto grass for the first time this year and eased past 2-time GS champion Victoria Azarenka with a composed 6-4, 6-4 win. “It was my first match on grass this year, actually having byes in these tournaments is not always a great thing because I want to play on grass as much as possible right now, but I’m really happy that I’m through to the next round,” Swiatek said, voicing her hunger for rhythm.

She followed that up with another solid victory yesterday, defeating Ekaterina Alexandrova in a tight straight-sets battle. Swiatek’s confidence is building, one blade of grass at a time.

But standing in her way now is Jasmine Paolini, the Italian firecracker who arrived in Bad Homburg fresh from a Berlin Open exit. The Italian began her campaign with a nerve-wracking double tie-break win over Leylah Fernandez and then edged out Beatriz Haddad Maia 7-5, 7-5, converting 4 of seven break points. With her record against Haddad Maia now 4-0, Paolini isn’t just dangerous, she’s surging. The SF showdown promises fireworks.

Swiatek vs Paolini: Head-to-Head

Iga Swiatek holds a flawless 4-0 record over the Italian Jasmine Paolini, and the numbers speak volumes. Their most recent clash came at the Billie Jean King Cup Finals last year, where Paolini showed grit but still fell 3-6, 6-4, 6-4. 

Before that, in their 1st three encounters, including the Roland Garros final, Paolini managed just nine games in total, three per match, while Swiatek dominated right from the 2018 Prague ITF to the 2022 US Open. Even on the indoor hard courts of Malaga last November, where Paolini pushed harder, it was still the 4-time GS winner who prevailed with steely nerves and a relentless finish.

Prediction: Swiatek to win this contest in three sets

The Italian Jasmine Paolini has carved out a steady path to the semis without dropping a set, winning 51% of the points she’s played. Over the last decade, she’s maintained a respectable 58% match-win rate (337–241), and in 2025, she’s 2-1 on grass. Her overall grass-court record stands evenly balanced at 16-16, but her crown jewel this year came on clay, capturing the Rome title after dismantling Coco Gauff 6-4, 6-2 in the final. Though grass hasn’t been her most fertile ground, Paolini’s game has shown growth, precision, and mental sharpness in recent outings.

On the flip side, Iga Swiatek is gliding through Bad Homburg without a single set lost, having won 53% of the points she’s played. With a formidable 34-10 season record and 2-0 on grass till now, Swiatek’s transition from clay to grass has been swift and focused. She battled 37 unforced errors in her QF but stayed mentally sharp, even using crossword puzzles to stay zoned in during the breaks. She’s made it clear, this is her only grass-court tune-up before Wimbledon, and she’s here to sharpen every edge.

Swiatek’s words on social media revealed her tactical mindset as well: “I had to adjust to the surface, keep aggressive yet safe.” Speaking about the conditions, she said, “Today, it was all about adjusting to the conditions, because it was super windy for most of the match.” That mental clarity and tactical control are what make her dangerous, especially on a surface where she still seeks redemption. Her 4-0 H2H record over Paolini only strengthens her psychological grip on this battle.

Even statistically, both have served well. Paolini landed 72% of her first and 2nd serves in her last match, despite not hitting a single ace and conceding her serve twice. She converted 57% of her break chances (4/7). Swiatek, however, fired 5 aces, committed just 4 double faults, and won 75% of her 1st serves and 55% of her second.

Considering the numbers, form, and history, Swiatek walks into this clash with the edge. But in tennis, you never know!