After a season full of ups and downs, Paula Badosa is finally showing signs of a comeback. Although she couldn’t secure an evident spot in Toronto, her performance in Cincinnati appears to have compensated the loss. Sitting on a commendable 4-match win streak, she is now ready to lock horns against the experienced American WTA star Jessica Pegula. With both of them ready to bring their own unique, fans can expect a highly intense match-up. But who among them is more likely to win? Let’s find out!

Jessica Pegula vs Paula Badosa: Preview

Ranked No. 6 in the world, Pegula made it to the semifinals after defeating Karolina Muchova, Taylor Townsend, and Leylah Annie Fernandez. She won the quarterfinal against Fernandez in an intense match where she scored 133 points to Fernandez’s 126 along with 49 winners. Pegula has lost 2 sets in the tournament, winning 54% of the points she played. She has a strong record, with 19-5 on hard courts in 2024. Her best results this season include titles in Berlin and Toronto, where she won close finals.

Badosa, on the other hand, advanced to the semifinals with straight-set victories over Peyton Stearns, Anna Kalinskaya, Yulia Putintseva, and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. In her quarterfinal match against Pavlyuchenkova, Badosa secured a convincing win by scoring 59 points to her opponent’s 38, with 19 winners. Paula has not lost a set in the tournament, winning 57% of the points she played. Her best result this season was winning the title in Washington, where she defeated Marie Bouzkova in the final. Badosa holds a 26-14 win-loss record in 2024, with a 15-7 record on hard courts.

Pegula vs Badosa: Head-to-head

The two have played twp matches, but none of them being from this year. Their last meeting was in 2023 at the Charleston Open quarter-finals where the American swiftly took Badosa down 6-3, 7-6.

Their first showdown took place in 2022 at the Miami Open quarter-finals where Pegula was lucky enough to move ahead without a lot of stress. The Spaniard had to retire in the first set itself. This places the American on a lead with the current score being 2-0.

Prediction: Pegula to win in three sets

Pegula and Badosa stand against each other with contrasting strengths for their semifinal clash. The American has shown remarkable consistency throughout the tournament, even during highly challenging conditions. Her ability to fight through tough moments was clearly seen in her quarterfinal win, where she made 3 aces, committed 7 double faults, and saved 9 break points while breaking her opponent’s serve 7 times.

However, her serving has seen inconsistency lately as she could manage to secure only a 63% success rate on her first serve and 46% on her second. Reflecting on her recent match, Pegula admitted, “It was a mental battle today, definitely. It was tough, yeah, really tough conditions.”

Badosa, on the other side, has been rock-solid on her serve as she managed to secure a massive 83% success rate on her first-serve points and 62% on her second serve. Her clean performance in the quarterfinal, where she didn’t face a single break point clarifies her consistency and strength. Badosa’s ability to maintain control on her serve along with keeping her return game stable has made her a hard-to-beat rival.

Although both players are ready to step forward with their own strengths, Pegula is overpowered with the confidence emerging from her win streak. In the upcoming showdown, it is highly likely that the American would extend her streak with an intense victory in three sets.