It’s time for the clash of titans at the Spanish capital! Familiar foes Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff are set to take on each other in the final of the 2025 Madrid Open. This will be their second meeting in a title-decider match. Remember what happened when they met each other at the 2023 US Open final? The 19-year-old Gauff had then stunned the Belarusian by defeating her in a three-set thriller to become the first American teenager to win the US Open since Serena Williams (1999). Sabalenka was brought to tears after that match. Fast forward two years and Sabalenka still trails Gauff 4-5. So, perhaps she now needs to come up with a solid plan to stop this ‘Giant-Slayer‘ in the epic final. What are her plans for Gauff in this match, though?

Coco Gauff recently defeated the defending champion Iga Swiatek by 6-1,6-1 in the SF. Considering her dominating performance against the ‘Queen of Clay,‘ fans can surely expect some fireworks from her in this match. Previously, while talking about the American during the 2024 AO, Sabalenka had mentioned, “She’s an incredible player. I really enjoy playing her. Win or lose, it’s always great matches. She’s a great player. I really hope that in the future we’re going to play many more finals and I mean hopefully I’m going to win all of them! I really enjoy playing her.” Last year, they had met each other thrice. Following that victory in Melbourne, they yet again crossed paths in Wuhan.

After securing a three-set victory over Gauff in Wuhan, Aryna Sabalenka said she took “belief” from Coco Gauff’s “mistakes” in that match. Before this final in Madrid, the American said it’d be “cool” to take up this challenge against the world number one. What did Sabalenka say about her plans in this match? She said it was “crazy” to reach the final in her fourth consecutive tournament, and then further speaking on her opponent, she added, “We had a lot of great battles against each other and very tough ones, very close ones. I’ll just go out there and fight for every point. That’s the best preparation to have against someone like Coco.“

So far this season, the Belarusian superstar has a 5-0 record against the Top 10 opponents. On the other hand, Coco Gauff is now the second-youngest player to reach the Madrid Open final after Caroline Wozniacki (2009). A win against Sabalenka will make her the world number 2 on Monday, but a defeat will make her number 3. There is a lot at stake for both of these players. Who has the real edge in this epic battle?

Former tennis players keep Aryna Sabalenka slightly ahead of Coco Gauff in the 2025 Madrid Open final

Before getting to the real reasons behind their picks, let’s first take a look at what is at stake for both of these superstars. This is Sabalenka’s 37th career win and also the 10th on clay. She has played 8 tournaments this season and has featured in the finals six times. Aryna Sabalenka has a win-loss record of 30-5 this season. On the other hand, this is Gauff’s 11th career final and third on clay. She has a win-loss record of 19-6 this season. Whoever wins this battle will win €985,030 in prize money along with 1,000 points.

Aryna Sabalenka will be looking forward to matching Petra Kvitová’s record by clinching her third title here. (Sabalenka won the Madrid Open in 2021 and 2023). On the other hand, Gauff is keen to clinch her fourth win over a reigning world number one. She will also be bidding to improve her stunning 9-1 record in finals to date. Interestingly, Coco Gauff can become the first player to beat both Sabalenka and Swiatek in one tournament on two occasions.

Who has the real chance in this mega duel? According to CoCo Vandeweghe, “I am picking Aryna Sabalenka in straight sets, I just think that after that huge win that Coco [Gauff] had, there might be a bit of a letdown just because she had that huge win in the fashion that she did. Can she repeat? I don’t think we have seen that yet this year from Coco Gauff, and I don’t think it happens here.” She believes the conditions favor the Belarusian.

Similarly, Andy Roddick stated, “I can’t bet against Aryna Sabalenka but we say predicting, we forget sometimes that is just guessing.” With that, he also mentioned, “I also would not have predicted Coco beating Iga Swiatek on clay, and I didn’t. She beat her 6-1, 6-1, so I guess that Sabalenka is going to win this match.” Roddick is impressed with Gauff’s recent performance, but he thinks Sabalenka will have the edge here. Who is your pick, though?