For Katie Boulter, the return to Roland Garros was a big deal this year, not just because it’s a major, but because of her history with the surface. Remember last year? Boulter looked solid through the first set, winning 6-4 against Badosa until the Spaniard quickly turned the tables. However, this year, the story was different. Katie Boulter has finally broken through the first round at Roland Garros, declaring she’s become “friends” with the notoriously tricky clay—a surface that’s long challenged British players.

Fresh off winning her previous tournament and now boasting titles on every surface, Boulter’s confidence is peaking. But her next test is formidable: Madison Keys, the composed American who claimed the Australian Open this year and has surged in form. In their first-ever meeting, Boulter faces a true veteran, setting the stage for a fascinating clash between rising momentum and proven Grand Slam pedigree. How will this match play out?

Madison Keys v Katie Boulter: Preview

On the other side, Katie Boulter dug deep in her opener, coming back from a set down to beat Carole Monnet 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-1. Boulter’s baseline game delivered 34 winners to her opponent’s 11. Her year’s been a rollercoaster, with a foot injury keeping her out for two months after the Australian Open. Since Indian Wells, results have been mixed, but she just lifted the WTA 125K Paris trophy in a tight final over Chloe Paquet.

Boulter has only played 12 matches this season, but her stats—40 aces, 65.7% first-serve points won, and a 52% break point conversion—hint at her potential. Match sharpness is still coming together. This was her first win at Roland Garros, and while clay hasn’t always been her ally, she’s adapting. That Paris title, her first WTA-level clay trophy, has given her a real shot of confidence for the French Open. How will this play out for her against Madison?

Keys launched her season on a tear, making noise in Auckland and Adelaide before finally seizing her first Grand Slam at the Australian Open. She outlasted Aryna Sabalenka in a thrilling final and took down stars like Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina, and Danielle Collins along the way. After 45 Grand Slam tries, Keys finally triumphed in Melbourne, and now she admits she’s working on not reverting to old habits—“the double-edged sword” of success in full view.

She rode that high to a semifinal in Indian Wells, but the spark dimmed a bit after, with just a Madrid quarterfinal and a quick Rome exit. Still, her numbers stand out: a 24-6 record, 139 aces, and 45.1% return points won. Keys rolls into Paris with a 5-3 clay record this year, plus memories of her 2018 Roland Garros semifinal and two career clay titles.

Keys v Boulter: Head-to-Head

This is the first-ever clash between Madison Keys and Katie Boulter, so their head-to-head sits at a blank 0-0. It’s a fresh matchup, adding a dash of intrigue to their Grand Slam campaigns on clay. With no history between them, predicting how they’ll handle this surface is anyone’s guess—but their recent form might just tip us off about who’s primed to grab the win.

Prediction: Madison Keys to win in straight sets

Madison brings a wealth of experience to Paris, stepping onto the clay for her 13th French Open main draw. Her best run here came in 2018, when she powered into the semifinals before falling to Sloane Stephens in straight sets. With two clay titles— Strasbourg (2024) and Charleston (2019)—under her belt, Keys is known for her strong returns and her ability to dominate on serve, making her a threat on any surface, clay included.

Katie Boulter, on the other hand, is just getting started at Roland Garros. This is only her second main-draw appearance, after debuting last year with a tight first-round loss to Paula Badosa. Now, she’s notched her first win in Paris, riding momentum from her recent WTA 125K Paris title—a confidence booster for the 28-year-old Briton.

When it comes to style, Boulter’s aggressive baseline game gives her the tools to challenge Keys, but the American’s raw firepower and experience could prove decisive. Additionally, Keys’ coach and husband, Bjorn Fratangelo, even claims, “I think it’s her best surface to be honest with you,” explaining that clay gives her the extra time she needs to set up her big forehand.

As they gear up for their first-ever meeting, the numbers and form point to Madison Keys as the clear favorite. Expect the American to use her clay-court savvy and momentum to push through to the third round, likely in straight sets against Boulter.