Aryna Sabalenka takes on the American tennis sensation, Emma Navarro, in the fourth round of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells on Thursday. Will it be an end to the fairy-tale run made by the 22-year-old American at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden this year? Well, as things lined up for Navarro, she’ll now have to climb a huge mountain to see the other side of the tournament.

Aryna Sabalenka has been in great form this season and would surely love to capitalize on that and clinch a few more titles. Sabalenka has won 13 of her last 15 matches, including a title-winning run at the 2024 AO. Can Emma Navarro make things tougher for the Belarusian in this intriguing faceoff?

Aryna Sabalenka vs Emma Navarro: Preview

The world number 2, started the 2024 season with an appearance in the finals of the Brisbane International. But sadly for the Belarusian, she had to take home the runners-up trophy as Elena Rybakina defeated Aryna Sabalenka by 0-6,3-6 in the finals. However, it didn’t take long for Sabalenka to make a comeback and clinch her second Grand Slam title in her career. She defeated Qinwen Zheng in the finals of the 2024 Australian Open to win her second consecutive title at Melbourne Park.

After that, she faced a shocking early exit from the Dubai Tennis Championships. But she came back strongly in her first two matches at Indian Wells. In her previous match, Aryna Sabalenka outclassed the British tennis star, Emma Raducanu in straight sets (6-3,7-5).

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Meanwhile, Emma Navarro also had a stellar start to her season this year and had already won 17 of her last 22 matches, including a title-winning run at the Hobart International. She started her campaign this year at the ASB Classic, where she lost to Coco Gauff in the SF. But in Hobart, she made a comeback and won the title, defeating Belgian tennis player Elise Mertens in the finals. Navarro reached the third round of the 2024 AO but she failed to make a significant impact during her Middle East tour.

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However, she did reach the SF in her next tournament in San Diego. She kept that momentum going in her first two matches at Indian Wells and recently defeated Ukrainian tennis star Elina Svitolina in a three-set thriller. But can she make her presence felt in the match against World No. 2?

Sabalenka vs Navarro: Head-to-Head

Well, the two players haven’t met each other before on the Tour. But if we look at some of the statistics, it may well help us make any predictions for this exciting match. Both players have passed significant challenges to reach the last 16 of this tournament. Looking at the stats, Navarro has played 52 matches over the last year across different court surfaces and has played 21.7 games per match. In her last 36 matches, the American has played an average of 23.1 games.

While Aryna Sabalenka has played 68 matches in total in the past 12 months across all courts, winning 59.1% of the games. She has played an average of 19.9 games per match and 9.1 games per set. Over the past 12 months, Emma Navarro has won only 1 title and has a win-loss record of 25-11. Aryna Sabalenka has won 1 tournament on hard courts over the past 12 months, with a win-loss record of 33-10 on the hard courts.

Aryna Sabalenka has a record of winning 68% of her matches in the last nine years. Her win-loss record in 2024 is 12-2. Can she showcase her dominance against the American challenger on March 14?

Prediction: Experience of playing in big matches, standing tall over anything else

Aryna Sabalenka is clearly the favorite to win this epic battle and make her way into the QF of the 2024 Indian Wells Masters. But Emma Navarro has showcased enormous resilience throughout this tournament. Her wicked drop shot to finish off a tiring 35-shot rally against Elina Svitolina in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open is a clear-cut example of her resilience.

So, surely, she will give a fight to the Belarusian. More than targeting her weakness, Navarro must keep discipline in her game to even stand a chance against the experienced campaigner. Aryna Sabalenka has played quite a lot of big matches in her career, and it’d be a cakewalk for her if Navarro fails to find a grip on the game right from the start. What are your thoughts on this match?

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