“I was just trying to go for every point,” said a confident Coco Gauff after making it to her maiden final at the Italian Open. She clinched a splendid victory against Qinwen Zheng on Friday while maintaining a dominant form in Rome this week. After a long duration of 3-and-a-half-hours, she finally wrapped up the battle to secure her spot in the summit clash. On Saturday, she will look to become the first American to lift the trophy of the WTA 1000 event since 2016, when her idol and 23-time slam queen Serena Williams emerged victorious. Gauff will have a tough challenge, though, in the form of local favorite Jasmine Paolini. So who’s going to eventually clinch the Italian Open title? Let’s try to find out!

Coco Gauff v Jasmine Paolini: Preview

Coco Gauff’s 2025 season hasn’t turned out as per expectations. After reaching the QF stage of the Happy Slam in January, she failed to maintain her consistency. In back-to-back events, the American faced early round exits. At the Qatar Open, Dubai Tennis Championships, Indian Wells, and Miami Open, she crashed out in R32, R32, R16, and then R16, respectively. Luckily, the 2023 US Open champion found her lost rhythm last month in Stuttgart. She made it to the QF before entering the summit clash of the Madrid Open. Sadly, she couldn’t lift the trophy as World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka bested her with a score line of 6-3, 7-6(3).

Gauff has continued her solid form on clay in Rome as well. She began her campaign with a hard-earned victory against Canadian teenager Victoria Mboko. The 18-year-old snatched the first set against Gauff. But the latter made a fabulous comeback and eventually advanced with a score line of 3-6, 6-2, 6-1. She edged out Magda Linette in R32 before taking down British star Emma Raducanu in R16. Moving into the last eight, she outperformed teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva in straight sets. Then in the SF battle on Friday, Gauff emerged victorious in a three-setter against China’s Qinwen Zheng. She won with a score line of 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-6(4) and made it to the final.

Speaking of her opponent, Italy’s Jasmine Paolini has also struggled to maintain a stable form this season. Back in January, she crashed out early at the Australian Open after losing to Elina Svitolina in the third round. She then witnessed back-to-back failures in subsequent tournaments. At the Qatar Open, Dubai Tennis Championships, and Indian Wells, Paolini was ousted in R16 successively.

However, she managed to deliver a promising run later at the Miami Open. She entered the semis before eventual winner, Sabalenka, edged her out. In Stuttgart also, the Italian reached the last four but couldn’t go beyond with a defeat against Sabalenka once again. At the Madrid Open, she failed to move past R32. But the Italian Open has turned out to be the best event for her in 2025. Paolini kicked off her campaign with a straight-set win over New Zealand’s Lulu Sun. In R32 and R16, she then took down Ons Jabeur and Jelena Ostapenko, respectively. Moving into the last eight, she bested Russian pro Diana Shnaider before defeating American Peyton Stearns in straight sets (7-5, 6-1) in the semifinal.

Gauff v Paolini: Head-to-Head

Both players have met three times across WTA events in their careers. Currently, the h2h tally stands at 2-1 in favor of Gauff. When they faced each other the last time, it was during this season’s Stuttgart Open. In that encounter, Paolini emerged victorious.

• 2025 Stuttgart Open QF: Paolini 6-4, 6-3
• 2023 Cincinnati Masters QF: Gauff 6-3, 6-2
• 2021 Adelaide International R32: Gauff 6-4, 6-7, 6-2

Prediction: Coco Gauff to win in three sets

In terms of singles stats, both the players compare equally this season. With a win percentage of 73.07, Coco Gauff and Jasmine Paolini have clinched victories in 19 of their 26 matches so far. But what about their event history?

Gauff has previously made it to the semis in Rome on two occasions. Firstly, she did it during the 2021 edition where Iga Swiatek ousted her. Then in 2023, too, the Pole edged her out in the last four encounter. Paolini has also made multiple appearances at the Italian Open. But she’s not been able to create any impact. In her last three campaigns here (2022, 2023, and 2024), she failed to go past R64 successively.

Speaking of their playing styles, Gauff is known for her lethal serves and solid groundstrokes. Combine that up with her aggressive approach on the net, by utilizing a fantastic court coverage. Simply put, she can easily adjust the movement between the baseline and the net. On the other hand, Paolini also prefers to stay aggressive. She’s got some effective groundstrokes alongside a dependable forehand. Despite having a short stature, she’s still able to move swiftly between the baseline and the net.

While both the players’ overall form may look similar recently, Coco Gauff appears to be the favorite going into Saturday’s summit clash. While Paolini may pose a threat, the American WTA pro is still expected to win her maiden Italian Open title in three sets.