The heat is rising at the Italian Open as world No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka prepares to face No. 8 Qinwen Zheng in a highly anticipated quarterfinal clash. Sabalenka holds a commanding 6-0 head-to-head lead over Zheng, but this will be their first meeting on clay- a surface where Zheng, the 2024 Olympic gold medalist, has excelled. Sabalenka, fresh off a Madrid Open title and fueled by recent momentum, acknowledged Zheng’s aggressive style: “Sabalenka is a pure offensive player. You must absorb a few of her powerful shots during her attacks.” Zheng, undefeated in sets so far, will test her resolve against the top seed on this challenging surface.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Qinwen Zheng: Preview

Sabalenka is absolutely dominating the 2025 season so far! She’s leading the WTA Tour with three titles from six finals, including two big WTA 1000 wins in Miami and Madrid. Sabalenka also made it to the Australian Open final, where she pushed Madison Keys to a thrilling three-set battle but came up just short. At the Italian Open, she cruised past Anastasia Potapova 6-2, 6-2, then battled back from a set down to beat Sofia Kenin 3-6, 6-3, 6-3. She followed that up with a tight 6-1, 7-6(8) win over Marta Kostyuk to reach her fourth WTA 1000 quarterfinal of the year.

On the other side, Qinwen Zheng has been steadily building momentum in 2025, winning 12 of her 19 matches. After a slow start, she’s hit her stride with three quarterfinal appearances in her last four tournaments, including back-to-back quarters at Indian Wells and Miami, where she fell to Iga Swiatek and Sabalenka, respectively. At the Italian Open, Zheng got a first-round bye and then impressed with straight-set wins over Olga Danilovic (6-1, 6-4), 26th seed Magdalena Frech (6-3, 6-2), and a strong 7-5, 6-1 victory against a returning Bianca Andreescu to reach her fourth quarterfinal of the season.

Sabalenka vs Zheng: Head-to-Head

This upcoming clash is their seventh meeting, and Aryna Sabalenka holds a commanding 6-0 lead over Qinwen. Their most recent battle was at the Miami Open this year, where Sabalenka edged out Zheng 6-2, 7-5. They also faced off at the WTA Finals in November, with Sabalenka winning in straight sets during the group stage.

The only time Zheng showed real fight was on home soil at the 2024 Wuhan Open final, taking the second set before ultimately losing in three sets (6-3, 5-7, 6-3). Despite the crowd favoring Qinwen, Aryna stayed unfazed, saying, “I’m not really focusing on the crowd when they’re against me anymore. I don’t really hear them. I’m just focusing on myself and my team…”

This rivalry has seen some high-stakes moments, including four quarterfinal encounters (2023 US Open, 2024 US Open, 2025 Madrid Open) and two finals (2024 Australian Open and Wuhan Open). Sabalenka’s dominance is clear, especially on hard courts where all their previous matches have been played. However, this will be their first meeting on clay, adding a fresh twist to their dynamic. Sabalenka’s aggressive style and superior stats on second serve points and break points won give her the edge, but Zheng’s resilience can never be underestimated.

Prediction: Sabalenka will win this match in three sets

Last year, at the Italian Open, the Belarusian lost 2-6, 3-6 to Swiatek in the 2024 final but has since dominated on clay this season. Boasting a 66.43% career win rate on the surface with 96 wins and 48 losses. She’s reached ten clay finals, winning Madrid thrice (2021, 2023, 2025) and making the Rome final in 2024. Her aggressive style fits clay well, with shorter rallies in Rome showing her adaptability.

Zheng is no pushover either, with a solid 76.23 % win rate on clay (94-29). She clinched the 2024 Paris Olympic gold on clay and has two WTA 250 titles in Palermo (2023, 2024). Reaching the Rome quarterfinals in both 2023 and 2024, Zheng has proven her clay-court credentials. However, this will be their first clay meeting; all six previous encounters were on hard courts, where Sabalenka leads 6-0, including a recent 6-2, 7-5 win.

Given Sabalenka’s dominant head-to-head, superior form this season, and her proven clay prowess, she’s the clear favorite with a 75% chance to win according to predictive models. Expect a high-intensity battle, but Sabalenka’s experience and firepower on clay should see her through, likely in three sets. This matchup promises excitement, but the edge firmly goes to the world No. 1.