After accomplishing her slam dream at the Australian Open earlier this season, Madison Keys has struggled to keep the consistency going. The World No.6 has gone through early round exits in most campaigns lately. Her last stint in Madrid was decent, but she would like to stretch it further at the Italian Open this week.

However, Keys will have a tough challenge ahead when she steps on the court to kick start her campaign against French WTA pro Varvara Gracheva on Thursday. Who will advance further in Rome between these two? Let’s try to find out!

Madison Keys v Varvara Gracheva: Preview

Madison Keys began her 2025 season on a phenomenal note back in January. In the final of the Happy Slam at the Rod Laver Arena, she outperformed World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka to capture a maiden major title. Later, she had to take a month-long break because of a leg injury. Upon her return, Keys continued to show solid form at the Indian Wells. She reached the semis before Sabalenka stopped her while taking the revenge of her AO defeat with a brutal score line of 6-0, 6-1.

The result against Sabalenka seems to have affected Keys’ form in subsequent events. In Miami, she crashed out in R32 after 19-year-old sensation Alexandra Eala bested her in straight sets. Then in Charleston, Russian pro Anna Kalinskaya beat her, in R16, with a score line of 6-2, 6-4. However, Keys regained her rhythm on Madrid’s clay surface, reaching the quarterfinal stage. But former World No.1 Iga Swiatek stopped her campaign eventually with a score line of 0-6, 6-3, 6-2.

Speaking of her opponent, Frenchwoman Varvara Gracheva’s 2025 season has been forgettable at best. Back in January, she was ousted in R32 of the Hobart International. Then down under, Germany’s Eva Lys ousted her early, in the second round, with a score line of 6-2, 3-6, 6-4. Going into the Winners Open, she couldn’t move past R32 after losing to American Peyton Stearns. Then at the ATX Open, too, she was ousted early after losing against American Caroline Dolehide in R16.

In her next five campaigns, too, Gracheva failed to create an impact. At the Indian Wells Masters, Miami Open, Charleston Open, Rouen, and Madrid Open, she was edged out in R64, R128, R32, R16, and R128, respectively. In the Italian Open this week, she began her stint on a winning note, defeating Aussie Ajla Tomljanović in straight sets (6-3, 6-4).

Keys v Gracheva: Head-to-Head

Both players haven’t met in any WTA event so far. Currently, the H2H tally stands at 0-0. Thursday’s match will mark their maiden face-off on the professional level.

Prediction: Madison Keys to win in straight sets

Madison Keys is miles ahead of her French counterpart in terms of singles stats this season. With a staggering win percentage of 82.14, the 2025 Australian Open queen has won 23 of her 28 matches so far. In comparison, Varvara Gracheva has clinched just six victories out of her 15 encounters.

Coming to event history, Keys has had a long experience at the Italian Open. This week, she will be competing in the WTA 1000 event for the 12th time. Her best run in Rome came almost a decade ago, in 2016. She managed to reach the summit clash before 23-time slam queen Serena Williams beat her with a score line of 7-6(5), 6-3.

In her last appearance (2024), Keys was able to reach the QF stage before Swiatek ended her campaign with a straight-set win. On the other hand, Gracheva hasn’t been able to impress on the Roman clay court. In the last two appearances (2023 and 2024), the French pro crashed out in R128 and then R64.

But what about their playing styles? Well, Keys is known for her aggressive approach using powerful strokes. She prefers to dominate her opponents from the baseline. She also relies on her first serves to earn crucial points. Also, watch out for her amazing forehand shots. Speaking of Gracheva, she’s known for her calm and composed approach on the court. She likes to take advantage from the baseline using effective groundstrokes.

Taking the overall form from 2025 into consideration, Madison Keys looks to be the clear favorite in Thursday’s face-off. The American is expected to advance into R32 at the Italian Open with a straight-set win over Gracheva.