After winning her maiden clay court title in Saint-Malo, last week, Naomi Osaka’s confidence is on cloud nine. Following a tough phase marred by injuries and poor performances, the four-time slam queen appears to have regained her lost form. And it’s arrived just in time ahead of the 2025 Roland Garros. The former World No.1 has got a crucial opportunity to continue her winning momentum at the Italian Open to prepare in the best way possible for the Parisian clay challenge. But her journey won’t be so easy as she’s set to go against World No.10 Paula Badosa on Thursday in the R64. So who will emerge victorious between these two? Let’s try to find out!

Naomi Osaka v Paula Badosa: Preview

The overall journey of Naomi Osaka in 2025 has been lackluster to say the least. At the beginning of the season, she impressed with her performance at the ASB Classic, reaching the summit clash. But then, an abdominal injury forced her to withdraw midway against Clara Tauson. A similar fate followed at the Australian Open too. In the third round, against Belinda Bencic, she had to walk off the court due to the abdominal strain. Eventually she took a long recovery break.

After coming back at the Indian Wells, however, Osaka failed to create an impact. Colombia’s Camila Osorio edged her out in the R128. Then in Miami, the Japanese pro couldn’t go beyond R16 after losing to Italy’s Jasmine Paolini. She faced yet another first round exit after a defeat against Italy’s Lucia Bronzetti who beat her 6-4, 2-6, 6-4 at the Madrid Open. Fortunately, Osaka managed to find the lost rhythm at the WTA 125 Saint-Malo last week. She went on to lift the trophy after outplaying Slovenia’s Kaja Juvan with a score line of 6-1, 7-5. It was her first-ever clay court title win and the maiden WTA tournament win in four years. Her last title triumph came at the 2021 Australian Open. Coming into the Italian Open this week, Osaka kickstarted her campaign with a straight-set victory over Italy’s Sara Errani on Wednesday.

Speaking of her opponent, Spain’s Paula Badosa had a dream start to her 2025 season in January. She succeeded in earning her best run at a slam down under. The World No.10 managed to reach the semis before losing against her best friend and World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka. In the next three events, however, she failed to impress. In Abu Dhabi, Doha, and Dubai, she crashed out in R16, R32, and R16 respectively.

Similar to Osaka, Badosa also witnessed a tough phase in recent events due to her lower back injury. At the Merida Open, she managed to reach the QF stage but had to withdraw midway. In Miami, too, she pulled her name ahead of the R16 encounter against Alexandra Eala, before withdrawing from the Madrid Open as well.

Osaka v Badosa: Head-to-Head

Both players haven’t met in any WTA event yet. Currently, the h2h tally stands at 0-0. Thursday’s match will mark their maiden face-off on the professional level.

Prediction: Naomi Osaka to win in three sets

Naomi Osaka is leading Paula Badosa when it comes to the singles stats this season. With a win percentage of 75, the Japanese WTA pro has won 15 of her 20 encounters so far compared to the Spanish player (12-8).

Coming onto the event history, Osaka’s best campaign in Rome came during the 2021 edition. Back then, she was able to reach the QF stage before losing to Netherlands’ Kiki Bertens. However, in her last two stints at the Italian Open (2021 and 2024), she couldn’t go beyond R32 and R16. When it comes to Badosa, her best run was during the 2023 edition. She made it to the R8 before her defeat against Latvia’s Jelena Ostapenko. In the last appearance, she couldn’t stretch her journey beyond R16, in 2024, against Coco Gauff.

Speaking of their playing styles, Osaka’s famously known for her aggressive approach using a solid serve and powerful forehand. Combine that up with an effective two-handed backhand. Not to forget her amazing athleticism on the court. On the other hand, Badosa is an aggressive baseliner. She relies heavily on groundstrokes and powerful serves. In her arsenal, she’s also got impactful kick and slice serves that she sometimes uses for second serves. Also, watch out for her stunning drop shots that she can utilize to put opponents under pressure and earn crucial points.

Now considering the overall form in 2025, the Japanese star appears to be the favorite. Plus, she’s riding high on confidence after winning a WTA title in her last campaign. While Badosa may pose a threat, Naomi Osaka is still expected to win the R64 on Thursday in three sets.