“I don’t expect many people to be cheering for me,” Peyton Stearns said, on Wednesday, ahead of her semifinal battle against local star Jasmine Paolini at the Italian Open this week. The 23-year-old American has witnessed a breakthrough campaign in Rome since last week. After stunning 2025 Australian Open champion Madison Keys few rounds ago, she’s come a long-long way. It’s the first time in her career that Stearns has made it to the SF stage of a WTA 1000 tournament. But her journey is still far from over. Against Paolini, she will have to maintain her winning momentum on Thursday. Can she make it happen?

Peyton Stearns v Jasmine Paolini: Preview

Peyton Stearns failed to get a positive start to her 2025 season back in January. At the Brisbane International, she was ousted in R32 with a loss against Australia’s Daria Kasatkina. Then in Adelaide, too, the outcome remain unchanged. Down under, she couldn’t create an impact and crashed out in the first round against compatriot Emma Navarro. Her disappointing run continued in subsequent events too. At the Winners Open, Qatar Open, Dubai, ATX Open, Indian Wells Masters, Miami Open, Charleston Open, and Madrid Open, she faced early exits in R16, R32, R16, R32, R128, R64, R32, and R16.

However, the fortunes eventually turned in her favor last week. In Rome, Stearns began her campaign with a straight-set win over Italy’s Nuria Brancaccio. Then in R64, she ousted Russian pro Anna Kalinskaya with a score line of 6-2, 6-3. But the morale-boosting victory for her came in R32 against this season’s AO queen and compatriot Madison Keys. In an intense decider, Stearns eventually bested Keys with a score line of 2-6, 6-2, 7-6(3). But she didn’t stop there. The World No.42 then took down four-time slam champion Naomi Osaka in R16 in a three-setter. In her last battle, she ousted Ukraine’s Elina Svitolina in the QF (6-2, 4-6, 7-6(4)) to make her maiden SF appearance in a debut campaign at the Italian Open.

Speaking of her opponent, Italy’s Jasmine Paolini’s 2025 season has been mostly unimpressive. Back in January, she faced an early exit down under after losing to Elina Svitolina. Similar to Stearns, she also went through back-to-back failures in subsequent campaigns. At the Qatar Open, Dubai Tennis Championships, and Indian Wells, she crashed out in R16 consecutively.

However, Paolini managed to shine at the Miami Open. She made it to the semis before losing against eventual winner Aryna Sabalenka. She continued the good form in Stuttgart, too. The Italian pro entered the last four but couldn’t move beyond after a loss to Sabalenka once again. But then she failed at the Madrid Open, crashing out in R32. Entering the Italian Open, Paolini began her campaign with a straight-set win over New Zealand’s Lulu Sun. Then in R32 and R16, she took down Ons Jabeur and Jelena Ostapenko. After besting Russian pro Diana Shnaider in the QF, the Italian reached the semis in Rome for the first time.

Stearns v Paolini: Head-to-Head

Both players have never met in a WTA event so far. Currently, the h2h tally stands at 0-0. Thursday’s match will mark their maiden face-off on the professional level.

Prediction: Peyton Stearns to win in straight sets

Jasmine Paolini is having a slight advantage over Peyton Stearns in terms of the singles stats this season. The Italian has clinched 18 of her 25 matches with a win percentage of 72. In comparison, the American has won 14 of her 25 encounters. But what about their event history?

Well, Paolini has had a lot of experience at the Italian Open since last few seasons. However, she’s failed to create any solid impact, having no prior deep runs. In her last three appearances (2022, 2023, and 2024), she crashed out in R64 successively. Speaking of Stearns, she’s playing her debut event in Rome and has performed exceptionally, making it to the last four.

Coming onto their playing styles, Stearns is known for her aggressive approach, especially on the clay surface. She prefers to dominate matches from the baseline with a powerful forehand. Plus, she can also approach the net at times to further pressurize her opponents. On the other hand, Paolini also prefers to play aggressively. In her arsenal, she’s got some effective groundstrokes alongside the strong forehand. Despite having a short stature, she’s capable of adjusting her movement swiftly on the court between the baseline and the net.

Looking at the overall form, Paolini may appear as the favorite but Peyton Stearns seems to be in her best form right now. On Thursday, the rising American talent is expected to stun the Italian in straight sets.