“Honestly, it was one of the weirdest matches I’ve ever played,” Defending Madrid champion Iga Swiatek said on her performance on Wednesday after pulling off a victory against formidable rival Madison Keys. Following their AO semifinal clash in January, where the American ousted the former World No.1 and eventually lifted the trophy in the final, it was the first face-off between the two strong WTA pros. Swiatek took her revenge on Keys, but it was a tough one to get. The Pole lost the first set 0-6 and then made a comeback to advance to the Madrid Open semifinal. But her quest to clinch a second straight title in the event is still far from over. On Thursday, she will have to overcome another strong American opponent, Coco Gauff, to ensure a third straight final.

Iga Swiatek v Coco Gauff: Preview

Iga Swiatek’s 2025 season has been stable if not outstanding. Back in January, she succeeded in reaching the Australian Open semifinal before losing in a thrilling match against Madison Keys. In the next event, at the Qatar Open, she maintained her consistency and reached the last four before losing against a formidable opponent in Jelena Ostapenko. In Dubai, she entered the R8 before her loss against the eventual winner, teenage sensation Mirra Andreeva.

Swiatek was the defending champion at the Indian Wells in March and looked like the potential winner. She made it to the SF stage, but here, too, she lost against Andreeva. The eventual winner of the event beat the Pole 7-6(1), 1-6, 6-3.  Then in Miami, the former World No.1 managed to enter the QF stage before a 19-year-old teenage phenom, the Philippines’ Alexandra Eala, stunned her. At the Stuttgart Open, Swiatek again reached the quarterfinal round but lost against eventual winner Jelena Ostapenko. Entering the Madrid Open, Swiatek began her campaign with a revenge on Eala, who edged her out in Miami. This time, the Pole ousted the Filipino with a score line of 4-6, 6-4, 6-2. The five-time slam queen then beat Czechia’s Linda Noskova in R32, before taking down Diana Shnaider in R16.

On Tuesday, Swiatek also took her revenge for the AO semifinal loss to Keys. The latter initially shocked the Pole with a bagel. But the defending Madrid Open winner came back strongly with a final score line of 0-6, 6-3, 6-2 to enter her third straight final of the WTA 1000 event.

Speaking of the next semifinalist, America’s Coco Gauff has witnessed a slugging season so far. Back in January, she managed to reach the QF round of the Happy Slam before Spain’s Paula Badosa ousted her. Still, Gauff was expected to keep the consistency going in subsequent events. Guess what? It didn’t happen at all. Instead, she faced back-to-back early round exits at the Qatar Open, Dubai Tennis Championships, Indian Wells, and Miami Open.

In Stuttgart last month, the 21-year-old finally managed to reach her first QF phase since the Australian Open. However, she couldn’t go deep after losing to Italy’s Jasmine Paolini. At the Madrid Open, it seems she’s regained her rhythm. Gauff began her campaign with a straight-set win over Ukraine’s Dayana Yastremska. It was a hard-earned win, though, as the Ukrainian sensation handed her a bagel in the first set. But Gauff bounced back and advanced into R32 with a final score line of 0-6, 6-2, 7-5. Next up, the 2024 WTA Finals champion beat compatriot Ann Li before taking down Swiss star Belinda Bencic in the R16. On Tuesday, Gauff ousted 18-year-old sensation Mirra Andreeva to reach her maiden Madrid Open semifinal.

Swiatek v Gauff: Head-to-Head

Both players have met on 14 occasions across WTA events so far. Currently, Swiatek leads the h2h tally with a staggering margin of 11-3 against Gauff. However, when they faced each other the last time, in 2025’s United Cup final, Gauff emerged victorious.

• 2025 United Cup F: Gauff 6-4, 6-4
• 2024 WTA Finals R1: 6-3, 6-4
• 2024 French Open SF: Swiatek 6-2, 6-4
• 2024 Italian Open SF: Swiatek 6-4, 6-3
• 2023 WTA Finals R1: Swiatek 6-0, 7-5
• 2023 Beijing SF: Swiatek 6-2, 6-3
• 2023 Cincinnati Masters SF: Gauff 7-6(2), 3-6, 6-4
• 2023 French Open QF: Swiatek 6-4, 6-2
• 2023 Dubai Tennis Championships SF: Swiatek 6-4, 6-2
• 2022 WTA Finals R1: Swiatek 6-3, 6-0
• 2022 San Diego QF: Swiatek 6-0, 6-3
• 2022 French Open F: Swiatek 6-1, 6-3
• 2022 Miami Open R16: Swiatek 6-3, 6-1
• 2021 Italian Open SF: Swiatek 7-6(3), 6-3

Prediction: Iga Swiatek to win in straight sets

Iga Swiatek has a huge advantage over Coco Gauff in terms of their singles stats. The Pole has won 22 of her 28 matches in 2025 so far, having an impressive win percentage of 78.57 compared to the American (13-6).

Speaking of event history, Swiatek shines in this department, being a defending champion already in Madrid. Last season, she beat World No.1 Aryna Sabalenka in the final (7-5, 4-6, 7-6). A season before that, in 2023, she was the runner-up when Sabalenka edged her out. On the other hand, Gauff’s last three appearances (2022, 2023, and 2024) have been mediocre. She lost in the R16 and R32 before crashing out in R16 again. This season, she’s earned her best campaign after reaching the last four in Madrid.

When it comes to playing styles, Swiatek is known for her all-court, aggressive approach. She prefers to utilize variations in her performance while relying on offense in delivering solid winners. Also, don’t forget her powerful backhand and forehand strokes. Combine that with her ability to hit volleys over the net to earn crucial points. Gauff, on the other hand, depends a lot on solid groundstrokes and her lethal serves. She tries to be the most aggressive. Not to mention her amazing athleticism to cover the court well between the baseline and the net.

Given the overall form this season and sheer dominance in h2h stats, the Pole looks the favorite. On Thursday, Iga Swiatek is expected to win the Madrid Open semifinal against Gauff in straight sets. Let’s see where the tides turn.