Aryna Sabalenka recently snapped Danielle Collins’ 15-match winning streak by defeating her in the R16 of the Mutua Madrid Open. She will now face Russia’s teenage tennis sensation, Mirra Andreeva, in her next match. Andreeva celebrated her 17th birthday on Monday with a victory against Italy’s Jasmine Paolini. Can she carry forward her winning run and cause a major upset at the Madrid Open by defeating the world number 2?

Well, Aryna Sabalenka is a two-time champion here. She will be keen to defend her title and grab her third this season. So, entering the cave and defeating “The Tiger” in her familiar territory will, of course, not be a piece of cake for this teenager! However, looking at their current form this year, surely there shouldn’t be any lack of entertainment when these two step onto the court just a few hours from now.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Mirra Andreeva: Preview

Sabalenka started her season in an emphatic manner, reaching the finals at Brisbane International and then successfully defending her title at the 2024 AO. But after that, she has struggled a bit to find consistency. Even in Madrid, she hasn’t looked at her absolute best as of yet. It took three sets to decide the winner in her previous three encounters in the Spanish capital. In her last match, Aryna Sabalenka defeated Danielle Collis by 4-6, 6-4, and 6-3. She hit four aces and committed an equal number of double faults in the entire match.

Her first serve win percentage was 68% and her second serve win percentage was 52% against the in-form American. However, when it came to the breakpoints, Sabalenka converted six out of her breakpoints and won ten of her service games against Collins. The 6-foot tennis star takes pride in her serves; Aryna Sabalenka once even said, “I hope all my shots can be strong, but my serve, I feel is the best.“

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Talking about her serves for this season, she has hit a total of 105 aces and committed just 64 double faults this season. Aryna Sabalenka has won 77.3% of her service games and 40.4% of her return games. Can her serve help her break the deadlock against the mighty challenger in her next match?

Talking about the promising star, this will be her third QF appearance this season. It will be interesting to see if she can manage to extend it further by accomplishing a mammoth task on Wednesday at the Manolo Santana Stadium. Andreeva defeated Paolini by 7-6(2),6-4 in her previous match. And she fired a total of five aces in her previous match. The Russian even managed to put a check on her double faults, committing a single double fault in the entire match. Her first serve win percentage was 56% but it dropped to 44% on her second serve.

Mirra Andreeva converted six out of her eight break points and won six of her service games against Jasmine Paolini. Looking at her numbers for this season, the teenager has managed to hit twenty-nine aces this season. And her numbers crept up to thirty-seven on her double fault. However, Andreeva has won 68% of her service games and 44.4% of return games this season. How did she perform when she met Sabalenka last year?

Sabalenka vs Andreeva: Head-to-Head

Last year they had met each other in the same tournament, but at that time the stage was comparatively lower than this time. Aryna Sabalenka defeated Mirra Andreeva by 6-3, 6-1 in the R16 clash of the 2023 Madrid Open. The Russian tennis player had completely failed to make her presence felt in that match. But she is now more mature and has improved her game a lot. Mirra Andreeva already has a total of two victories against the Top 10 in her career. She wouldn’t mind adding another on Wednesday!

But if look at their numbers from their previous meeting in Madrid, Sabalenka hit three aces and didn’t commit a single double fault in the entire match. While Andreeva hit two aces and committed four double faults against the Belarusian. Mirra Andreeva’s first serve win percentage was 53% while it dropped to 44% in her second serve. However, Aryna Sabalenka had a first-serve win percentage of 67% and her second-serve win percentage was around 71%. Sabalenka converted only five of her thirteen breakpoints at that time. While Andreeva looked more efficient in this converting one of his two breakpoints against the current number 2.

Prediction: Sabalenka to win this match two sets yet again

Despite failing to find his dominating performances over the last few matches. It looks like this is going to be the match for which Aryna Sabalenka has been waiting for so long! Although, having said that, one also needs to keep in mind Mirra Andreeva’s ability to produce unexpected results out of nowhere. But if we look at their win-loss record for this season, Aryna Sabalenka has a record of 15-5. While Mirra Andreeva has managed to build a record of 8-5 so far this season. It’s world number 2 versus the number 43!

The two-time Madrid Open champion vs the player who appeared in the fourth round of the tournament last year! Aryna Sabalenka’s aggressive style of play versus Mirra Andreeva’s extraordinary defensive abilities. Andreeva’s biggest weakness has been her serve, while serves are one of the most lethal weapons of Aryna Sabalenka. However, Mirra Andreeva is pretty good with her backhands and she needs to put an early check on her errors and turn even the tiniest of chances into her favor to stand a chance in this match.

Does she really have a chance in this match? No, but in tennis we’ve witnessed some unexpected results in the past. Sabalenka will have to reduce the number of unforced errors in this match. Looking at their records in this tournament and their current run into the tournaments over the last few months. It’s the proven one over the promising one this time around in Madrid!