Aryna Sabalenka has been on a tear in 2025. Titles in Brisbane and Miami? Check. Finalist at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells? Double Check—she’s been steamrolling through the season like it’s her personal highlight reel. But there’s one pesky pothole in her otherwise smooth ride: the Stuttgart Open. She’s made the final three years in a row (2021, 2022, 2023) and walked away with… well, just the runner-up plate. Now she’s back for a fourth crack at that Porsche. Standing in her path? Jelena Ostapenko, a former French Open champ. This one’s got all the makings of a clay-court classic. So who grabs the crown (and the car)? Let’s break it down!

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko: Preview

Aryna Sabalenka has powered her way into a fifth final this season—and she’s done it in style, without dropping a single set in Stuttgart. After receiving a first-round bye and benefiting from a second-round walkover, the Belarusian breezed past Elise Mertens 6-4, 6-1 in the quarterfinals. She followed that up with a composed and clinical 7-5, 6-4 win over Jasmine Paolini in the semis, once again leaning on her signature baseline firepower and steady nerves in the big moments.

On the other side of the net, Jelena Ostapenko’s season hasn’t exactly turned heads—until now. The Latvian, who reached the final in Doha earlier this year before falling to Amanda Anisimova, entered Stuttgart unseeded and had to scrap her way through a much tougher draw. She began with a win over Dayana Yastremska, who retired mid-match. The 27-year-old then battled past seventh seed Emma Navarro in a tight contest.

Ostapenko’s biggest statement came in the quarterfinals, where she stunned World No. 2 Iga Swiatek—improving her incredible head-to-head record to 6-0 against the Pole. A solid 6-4, 6-4 win over Ekaterina Alexandrova in the semifinals, thereafter, sealed her spot in her first final at this event.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko: Head-to-Head

Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko have

faced each other three times on the WTA Tour so far, with Sabalenka winning all encounters:

•2024 – Rome (Quarterfinals) – Sabalenka def. Ostapenko 6-2, 6-4

•2023 –  

Dubai Duty Free Championships (R16) – Sabalenka def. Ostapenko 2-6,6-1,6-1

•2019 – Zhenghzou Open (R16)– Sabalenka def. Ostapenko 6-1,6-2

Prediction: Sabalenka to win in straight sets

The Stuttgart final is shaping up to be a power-packed showdown between two of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour. Aryna Sabalenka’s explosive game has always been well-suited to the slick indoor clay courts, where her heavy serve and flat and aggressive groundstrokes give her an edge in controlling the tempo early in rallies. But what has really set her apart this season is how much more measured she’s become. The raw power is still there, but she’s now constructing points with a level of maturity that wasn’t always present in her earlier years.

For Jelena Ostapenko, on the other hand, this week has been a statement of intent. Taking down World No. 2 Iga Swiatek yet again is a reminder of just how dangerous she can be when her game clicks. But Ostapenko’s high-risk, high-reward style can be a double-edged sword, especially on clay, where rushed shots and misfires tend to pile up. Her second serve remains a glaring vulnerability, and against someone like Sabalenka, that’s likely to be targeted relentlessly.

While Ostapenko has shown flashes of brilliance on clay, with the 2017 French Open triumph being her most notable achievement, her results on the surface ever since have been hit or miss.

Sabalenka, in contrast, has quietly turned herself into a much more competent clay-courter. Her three straight finals in Stuttgart speak to that growth, and her 3-0 head-to-head record against Ostapenko suggests she knows exactly how to disrupt the Latvian’s rhythm.

With the Stuttgart title within reach for a fourth time, Sabalenka’s hunger and form could finally carry her over the line. Expect her to lift the trophy this time around. The prediction is for the Belarusian to win the final in straight sets.