Tunisia’s ‘Minister of Happiness’ is back to her winning ways in Stuttgart. Ons Jabeur snapped her 5-match losing streak with a hard-fought victory against Russia’s Ekaterina Alexandrova in the first round of the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. This victory on Wednesday was her only third victory on the Tour in 2024. Can she improve her numbers with a good performance at the Stuttgart Open? Jabeur will next Italy’s Jasmine Paolini in the second round of the tournament.

Paolini has been in good form this year and has also reached her career-high ranking of number 14, in the 2024 season. She’ll surely look forward to bank on this form and carry forward the momentum for the rest of the year. But can she defeat the number 9, and secure a place in the next round of the Stuttgart Open?

Ons Jabeur vs Jasmine Paolini: Preview

Ons Jabeur has not defeated a Top 10 player yet this season. Her best results this year came at the Abu Dhabi Open where she reached the QF. But after that, she has been pretty ordinary in the rest of her matches. She had to fight from a set down to snatch a victory against the number 16 in her previous match. 

Ons Jabeur defeated Ekaterina Alexandrova by 2-6,6-3,7-6(1) and secured her spot in the R16. In that match, she hit 4 aces and committed an equal number of double faults. Her win percentage on the first serve was 73%, while it was just 53% on the second serve. She had a record of 4/5 when it came to the breakpoints and had managed to win 10 of her service games against the Russian.

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Looking at her overall record for this year, Ons Jabeur has hit 30 aces and committed only 5 double faults so far this season. She has won 60% of her service games and 29.1% of her return games in 2024. Her first-serve win percentage is currently at 63.4%. Do these numbers keep her ahead of Paolini in this clash?

Well, Jasmine Paolini has already tasted a title triumph this year at the Dubai Tennis Championships. She is currently the number-one Italian female player. The 28-year-old had a decent season so far this year. She faced her compatriot, Sara Errani in the first round of the Stuttgart Open.

In that match, Paolini thrashed Errani by 6-1,6-0. She hit 3 aces and committed 2 double faults in that match. Her first-serve win percentage was 89% while it was 69% on the second-serve. She had a breakpoint record of 6/7 against Errani and won 6 of her service games. Can she disrupt all the equations of Tunisian tennis stars?

Jasmine Paolini’s form will be a major concern for Ons Jabeur. Paolini has managed to hit 25 aces so far this season and committed 28 double faults. She won 66.4% of her service games and 37.5% of her return games in this season so far. Her first-serve win percentage is currently at 61.5%. Even Paolini looks like quite a strong opponent looking at these stats. But what does the H2H record say?

Jabeur vs Paolini: Head-to-Head

Ons Jabeur met Jasmine Paolini twice in her career so far. And on both occasions, the Tunisian had the last laugh over the Italian. They had first met each other at the Madrid Open in 2022. In that match, Jabeur defeated Paolini by 7-6,6-1. Their next meeting was at the Eastbourne International in 2023, even at that time Jabeur snatched a two-set victory over Paolini. She defeated her by 6-3,6-2.

Jabeur managed to hit 4 aces compared to only 1 by Paolini throughout the entire match. However, Ons Jabeur had committed 3 double faults, while Jasmine Paolini had committed only 2. The former world number 2’s, win percentage on the first serve in that match was 71% while it was 50% on the second serve. Paolini had a first-serve win percentage of 48% and her record on the second serve was only 40% in that match. Who’s having an edge in this contest?

Prediction: Jabeur to win this match

It’s number 9 over number 14, the experience of playing in the big games over a relatively inexperienced one. Despite having a better form compared to Ons Jabeur, Jasmine Paolini may find it difficult to showcase her dominance in the game like she did in her previous match. Jabeur reached the QF of the French Open in 2023, while Paolini’s best record on the clay court Grand Slam event has been only reaching the second round. Both of them love to play on clay courts.

Ons Jabeur reached the QF of this tournament in 2022 and SF in 2023, while this is Paolini’s first appearance in this tournament. Having said that, Jasmine Paolini has a win-loss record of 12-7 this season. But Ons Jabeur could only manage a 2-6 win-loss record in her before coming into this tournament. Jabeur is an experienced campaigner, she’ll surely know a way or two of sailing her ship better through the rough seas.