A WTA rankings shakeup might be in order at the Mutua Madrid Open. Aryna Sabalenka, who has stayed firmly fixed at the No. 2 position since 2021, with a brief appearance at the top last September, might be at risk of slipping down. Clay favorite Coco Gauff lost to a resurgent Madison Keys in a big upset but might yet come out of Madrid with a win. Still, Sabalenka’s win in the last eight means she holds the edge.

Sabalenka first ended Collins’ 15-win streak and has now advanced to the semis after a repeat victory against Russian teenager Mirra Andreeva. Can she defend her reigning Madrid Open title?

Per live rankings, the Belarusian beauty is currently at 7238. She gained 1000 points in the tournament last week and has managed to claim 225 points back, which means she lost 785 points. Hence, she dropped down to rank three, 75 points behind Gauff, who is at 7313 points.

Gauff, albeit a clay specialist, has not had great results in the Mutua Madrid Open. In 2023, she lost in the round of 32 to Paula Badosa. This year, she reached the round of 16, which is her best result in the second clay Masters. Madison Keys ousted her in a surprising upset, but she still gained more points than she lost since she reached a new stage, hence found herself at a new career-high of rank 2. But Gauff and Sabalenka are not the only two in contention for this spot.

Current World No. 4 Elena Rybakina, who faced an unfortunate exit from Madrid in 2023, will now play Sabalenka in the semi-finals. Standing at a disadvantage since the H2H stats read 3-5 in Saba’s favor, Rybakina’s victory or loss will either way bring an interesting point roundup.

If Rybakina wins the Madrid Open she will only be 30 points behind Gauff for the number two spot which will mean a further slide for Sabalenka.

For the Belarusian, who won her second Grand Slam in Australia earlier this year, it would be a downfall if she relinquished her number two spot to Gauff. The World No. 2 holds a certain prestige at the assurance of being the top seed in half of the draws. And two is of course closer to 1 than 3. If the Gauff manages to hold on to the number two spot after the Madrid Open is done, it will be a huge upset for the Belarusian, who has already had a rollercoaster of a year. But with Gauff’s exit from Madrid, Sabalenka’s destiny is in her own hands.

“It’s never easy if you get to the semi-finals. Elena (Rybakina) is a great player. We had so many great battles. It’s gonna be a tough challenge, but I’m happy to accept this challenge. Hopefully I’m gonna bring my best tennis,” Saba said after her QF win.

To reoccupy the top spot, Sabalenka will need to reach the final. The situation raises the stakes further in the Madrid Open semi-final. The tournament has already seen changes to the WTA table beyond the Top 3 spots.

Changes to the rest of the table

Tennis drama is always exciting at the top of the table. But the Madrid Open has caused changes to many positions. Qinwen Zheng and Marketa Vondrousova have gone up by 1 spot despite losing in the round of 64 and 32, respectively. After reaching the semifinal in 2023, Maria Sakkari could not go beyond the round of 16, which caused her to go down to rank 8.

Jasmine Paolini, who was eliminated in the round of 16, finds herself at rank 12, another career-high. Keys, after triumphing over Gauff, jumped up 4 spots and now sits at rank 16, coming a bit closer to regaining her all-time high. Yulia Putintseva experienced the biggest jump as she found herself in the quarterfinal of the Madrid Open, rising from 50 to 40.

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Madrid has served us with prime tennis drama and will likely continue to bring us more as the final stages commence. Will Sabalenka retain her number two ranking after it is all said and done?