While its fate remains uncertain, the Floyd Mayweather–Manny Pacquiao rematch continues to draw speculation. Will the Filipino icon avenge his 2015 loss and dull Mayweather’s spotless record? Diehards believe that’s possible; Pacquiao could inflict Mayweather’s first professional defeat.

That debate, however, is not unanimous. Voices like Adrien Broner, who fought the former 8-division champion 7 years ago, believe the outcome will likely mirror what unfolded in their 2015 face-off. Talks around their Netflix sequel, scheduled at the Sphere in Las Vegas on September 19, generated considerable buzz, but momentum cooled after Floyd Mayweather said the fight will be an exhibition and not a real bout. Manny Pacquiao maintains it will be a professional fight. With several deadlines looming, Broner believes the situation carries added risk, particularly for Pacquiao.

“I think it’s going to serve the purpose. It’s going to be a great fight to watch,” he told a reporter. “Pacquiao is definitely coming to fight. It’s going to be an exciting fight.”

Still, he is firm on the outcome.

“I still don’t think he can beat Floyd,” Broner added. “No matter what.”

That view isn’t isolated. In hindsight, it reflects his own experience. Pacquiao routed Adrien Broner in 2019 when they met for the former’s WBA welterweight title. His career never fully regained momentum afterward, with long layoffs disrupting his run. His relationship with Mayweather has also fluctuated between friendship and public friction.

Previously, a similar tone echoed in Mayweather’s camp.

“I think that the fight is probably going to be pretty much the same (as last time), but both of them are not the same fighters that they once was,” his uncle, Jeff Mayweather, said. “The names are the same, but the fighters, they are not. They have both aged, and, I’m going to be honest, the last fight with Pacquiao, when he fought Barrios, that fight looked like crap to me. He looked like crap. Even though the fight was close, and I understand that the fight was close, the greatness of Pacquiao was gone. I didn’t see it; I didn’t even see an inkling of it.”

Adding another layer to the discussion, champion David Benavidez, who faces Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez on May 2, believes Mayweather still gets the job done if he steps in as his older version.

Manny Pacquiao pushes forward as Floyd Mayweather raises doubts

While opinions continue to stack up, the storyline now shifts back to Pacquiao. He remains gung-ho about his chances and believes Mayweather is “scared” of losing, pointing to what he sees as delay tactics while insisting their September showdown will be a real fight and not an exhibition.

That back-and-forth brings Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 into sharper focus 11 years after their first meeting at the MGM Grand. With Mayweather and Pacquiao’s welterweight titles on the line, the unification bout ended with the American winning by unanimous decision.

While it set records as the richest fight in boxing history, the contest itself fell short of expectations, as both fighters failed to perform at their best. Even now, that outcome still fuels the central question: would a 50-year-old Mayweather and a 48-year-old Pacquiao look any different from their first meeting when they were in their prime?

And even if all hurdles are cleared, a finalized professional bout still favors Pacquiao over Mayweather.

Pacquiao ended a four-year retirement last year, returning to face a reigning champion in a professional bout. He delivered a well-received performance, even if the result fell short of expectations. In contrast, Mayweather has only competed in exhibitions, facing influencers like Logan Paul and Deji Olatunji, with his most recent outing against John Gotti III.

That contrast says it all. The closer this fight gets to reality, the more the risk appears to tilt toward the 50-0 legend.