For all the greatness Julio Cesar Chavez achieved, his heart carries a lingering pain. Like many fathers, he harbored hopes and dreams that his son would one day stand where he once did. But to his dismay, and that of countless fans, Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. chose a different path. Marked by personal controversies and professional inconsistencies, his career never reached the heights many had hoped for. After a series of absences, underwhelming performances, and high-profile defeats, Chavez Jr. now returns to the ring. He will face the man on whose undercard he appeared nearly 12 months ago: Jake Paul.

Yet Chavez Sr. remains unwavering in his belief. “Julio is going to go in throwing some serious punches, and you’re going to be running like a chicken without a head,” he told Paul at Thursday’s press conference. For Chavez Jr., this fight offers a potential ticket to redemption. For Jake Paul, it’s a high-stakes opportunity. Defeating a former world champion would be a significant milestone. It may even open the door to a future title shot. Emotions are certainly high. But what does the actual matchup look like?

Predicting Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.: Who has better stats and record?

On one side stands Jake Paul, a relative newcomer with five years in the sport. His opponents have largely been former MMA fighters and semi-retired boxers. The one fighter with a legitimate boxing pedigree, Tommy Fury, handed Paul his only defeat to date.

On the other side is Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., who began his professional journey in the early 2000s. His rise culminated in a world title by 2012. But the years that followed were turbulent. His career derailed due to a mix of losses, most notably to Canelo Alvarez, long periods of inactivity, and underwhelming performances. Even in a bout against Anderson Silva, a former UFC champion with limited boxing experience, Chavez Jr. came up short. His last outing was against Uriah Hall, another MMA fighter, after a nearly three-year layoff.

Chavez Jr.’s record stands at 54 wins, 6 losses, 1 draw, and 1 no contest (following a failed drug test). Paul’s professional record features 11 wins and 1 loss. Despite the difference in experience, both fighters have similar knockout ratios. Paul has stopped 7 of his opponents (64%), while Chavez Jr. has 34 KOs among his 54 wins (63%).

Paul vs. Chaves Jr.: Height, Weight, Reach Comparison, and More

The two fighters are virtually identical in stature. Both stand at 6’1″ or 185 centimeters. But Jake Paul enjoys a slight edge in reach. Against his 76 inches (193 cm), Chavez Jr. boasts a 73 inches (185 cm) wingspan. The fight will be contested at cruiserweight and is scheduled for ten rounds. At the final weigh-in, Paul tipped the scales at 199.4 pounds, while Chavez Jr. came in slightly lighter at 198.4 pounds.

Fight Prediction

Bookmakers have spoken. With odds of -670, Jake Paul is considered a strong favorite. He seems to have an 82% chance of victory. Chavez Jr., the underdog, sits at +430. The reasons are simple yet layered across. First, its age. Jake Paul turned 28 on January 17 this year. And roughly a month later, on February 16, Chavez Jr. turned 39.

Then comes form and activity. Whatever the criticisms, Jake Paul has been active in the ring. Concluding with the Mike Tyson fight, last year alone he fought three times! Chavez Jr. comes off an 11-month layoff. Moreover, discounting the Tyson fight, Paul’s three prior fights ended in early stoppage. For JC Jr., it’s been an uphill struggle. Before he went on a three-year break, his last fight, against David Zegarra, went the distance.

But tonight’s fight is a test for Paul as well. Can he go the full ten rounds against a former world champion? Critics acknowledge Paul’s improvement. Even his loss to Tommy Fury was a closely contested affair.

Former champion Tim Bradley offered a balanced take. “I believe the difference in experience, Chavez’s natural feel for the ring against Paul’s ruthless, undeniable drive to prove himself, could be the subtle decider of who wins. So, can Chavez beat Paul? Absolutely. But I don’t think he will,” he said in an ESPN op-ed.

Still, others urge caution. Ring announcer Kody ‘Big Mo’ Mommaerts said, “You can’t discredit Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.; he’s obviously had some battles in the past, some out-of-the-ring stuff that he’s had to deal with, but he is Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. He is 54-6 as a professional, and he is a former WBC middleweight champion and the son of Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. He knows how to box.”

So there it goes. Jake Paul’s youth, energy, and ambitious drive against Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.’s experience and legacy.

Our Prediction: Jake Paul clinching a close victory.

Do you agree with our prediction? If not, then please share yours in the comments below.