The boxing world is waiting with bated breath. Living true to his surname, will Alan David Picasso paint a bleak picture for Naoya Inoue? Or, by repeating his dominant form and streak, will “The Monster” once again prove why he deserves the No. 1 spot on the pound-for-pound roster? For his part, Picasso has already issued a warning to the Japanese superstar – it will not be a night of the Samurai, but that of the Azteca.

As he steps into the ring for the fourth time this year, chasing a record sixth undisputed title defense, Naoya Inoue can scarcely afford to rest on his laurels. He must take the 25-year-old challenger’s words seriously, as much depends on the outcome of the headline bout set to unfold at Riyadh’s Mohammed Abdo Arena. A loss at this stage, as he enters the latter phase of a Hall of Fame career, could make a comeback an uphill task for the 32-year-old phenom. Not that a victory would guarantee smooth sailing either. A win may likely set up a momentous showdown against fellow countryman and rising star Junto Nakatani. So, how will the main event of The Ring V: Night of the Samurai play out? Will Picasso pull off a Buster Douglas-style upset on the biggest night of his career?

Predicting Naoya Inoue vs. Alan David Picasso: Who has better stats and a record?

Although he has been fighting professionally since 2017, five years after Inoue made his debut, Picasso has already compiled an impressive record, featuring 33 wins, with only one bout ending in a draw. A student of neuroscience, the unbeaten fighter from Mexico City relies more on refined ring craft than raw power. That approach explains why his knockout-to-win rate currently stands at 53%.

His opponent, by contrast, is a master of power and pressure. A staggering 87% knockout rate makes Naoya Inoue one of boxing’s most feared finishers. Prior to his recent bout against Murodjon Akhmadaliev, the last time one of his fights went the distance was in 2019. Add to that his undisputed reign across two weight classes, and the result is a resume that is difficult to rival.

Naoya Inoue vs. Alan David Picasso: Height, weight, reach comparison, and more

The primary concern Inoue himself has highlighted is the size difference. For a super bantamweight, Picasso is notably tall at 5 feet 8 inches (173 centimeters). In comparison, Inoue stands at 5 feet 5 inches (165 centimeters), giving up roughly three inches in height.

Picasso’s 70-inch (178-centimeter) reach compounds the challenge for Inoue, whose own wingspan measures 67.5 inches (171 centimeters). At the final weigh-in for the Akhmadaliev fight, Inoue registered 121.7 pounds. Picasso, meanwhile, weighed 125.8 pounds for his bout against Kyonosuke Kameda.

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The official weigh-in results for the bout are as follows:

Inoue – 121.5 pounds

Picasso – 121.1 pounds

Fight prediction

While Inoue appears cautious about the physical advantages his opponent possesses, fans and pundits have largely dismissed any lingering doubts. For most, the fight is expected to go the Samurai’s way. While youth and size favor the Mexican challenger, skill, momentum, and form lean decisively toward the undisputed champion.

Maintaining an active schedule, something of a rarity in modern boxing, Inoue demonstrated during his title defense against Akhmadaliev that he can comfortably go the full 12 rounds when required. He not only frustrated the Uzbek challenger but also outboxed him across every facet of the contest.

That said, warning signs do exist. Fights against Louis Nery and, more recently, Ramon Cardenas showed that Inoue can be knocked down. His risk-taking tendencies could prove dangerous against a crafty and elusive operator like Picasso.

There are additional concerns as well. The Picasso bout has been somewhat overshadowed by talk of future matchups against Junto Nakatani and Bam Rodriguez. Some fans also believe cumulative fatigue may be setting in. Four consecutive fights can take a toll, even on elite fighters.

Picasso’s style follows a straightforward but effective blueprint: a high guard to absorb shots, pressure to close distance, and sustained inside work targeting both body and head. So while confidence in a Monster victory remains high, viewers may watch with a degree of caution. The neuroscience student has not come merely to make up the numbers.