The undisputed title of Super Middleweight is sitting precariously on a weighing scale. Even though there is a clear frontrunner, nobody can say for sure which way the scale will ultimately tip. After all, Canelo Alvarez will fight on his home turf. Though an admirable move, Jermell Charlo, on the other hand, has taken an immense risk climbing two divisions up to fulfill his ambitions of becoming the next two-division undisputed champion after Terence Crawford.

So, is there any way the Texas native can usurp a grand upset? Time alone can foretell how the dance in the ring will eventually play out. But many die-hards and pundits go through minute details to discern even the tiniest indicator of a favorable outcome. Let’s review some of the key aspects that separate the living legends.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jermell Charlo: Prediction and Stats Comparison

With the upcoming fight on September 30, it should be noted that it will be the third time within a span of 12 months that Canelo Alvarez will see the face of the ring. Soon after losing to Dmitry Bivol in May last year, he returned to the 168-pound division and fought off the challenges from first Gennady Golovkin and, seven months later, John Ryder. Whereas Jermell Charlo, who became an undisputed champion last year after knocking out Brian Castano during their rematch in May, will be getting in the ring after a gap of fourteen months. Thus, it’s clear who has been the more active boxer comparatively.

Record

Height and Reach

Age and Weight

Knockout Ratio

With a 66.1% knockout-to-rate, Canelo Alvarez has a clear upper hand compared to Jermell Charlo’s 54.29%. As most fans might know, over the years, the former has adopted a more American style of fighting, involving a gradual pace, chasing the opponent till he starts making mistakes, and follow-ups involving short bursts of deadly combinations, unlike the standard Mexican explosive fighting.

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Does Jermell Charlo have a chance to beat Canelo Alvarez?

Now, from the features, it is clear that Jermell Charlo might enjoy a slight advantage in terms of height and reach. However, the Mexican superstar rides on the strength of an exceptional record and a style he perfected over time. So, the obvious question remains. Is there somehow a way Jermell Charlo can defeat Canelo Alvarez? Let’s look at what some of the experts have to say on the matter.

A word from a reigning champion

The WBO (Interim) Light middleweight champion, Tim Tszyu, didn’t mince words while speaking to Fox Sports Australia. The son of former world champion Kosta Tszyu believes that the undisputed Light Middleweight will have a hard time setting up his game against the outstanding ring IQ of Canelo Alvarez. Initially, he thought that the ‘Iron Man,’ by moving around and maintaining a disciplined distance, might land an upset decision-based win.

However, as the days passed, his perceptions also changed, and now he believes that Alvarez would score a knockout win. He said, “I still think it will go to the later rounds, and think Charlo will be sharp at first, moving around. But once he sits on the ropes, that’s where Canelo will dominate. Will get the KO just with his physical strength, his IQ, and experience…” When asked whether Charlo moving up two divisions would impact the outcome, Tim Tszyu replied that size would not play such a significant role.

Former world champion

Let’s hear what a former champion had to say about each fighter’s prospects. Oscar De La Hoya knows Canelo Alvarez way too well. The undisputed champion used to be a part of his stable. Though no longer together as a team, the Olympic gold medalist knows his former charge better than many others. He also believes it could be an ‘easy win’ for Canelo Alvarez.

He acknowledges that the Mexican icon tends to move around a bit slowly inside the ring. But if he can catch Charlo with his power shots, he might bring around an early stoppage. So the only recourse for the American Light Middleweight would be to fight the way Dmitry Bivol fought Alvarez last year: constantly using jabs, creating distance, and moving around frequently.

De La Hoya said, “But if Charlo keeps jab — double, double, triple, double, up, down—and throws combinations and moves and stays this distance, he can give Canelo a lot of trouble. Just like Bivol—he was throwing punches, coming back out, throwing punches, coming back out. Keep your distance. Use your jab. Should be an easy win for Canelo, or should be a masterful performance by Charlo.”

Trainer’s inputs

Now, moving over to a boxing coach who, in the past, covered Manny Pacquiao‘s corner, besides training former world champion Miguel Cotto and many others, Freddie Roach seemingly puts his money on Jermell Charlo. According to the Hall of Fame trainer, the ‘Iron Man’ will create a massive upset on Saturday by knocking down Alvarez. He reasons that the Mexican champion is no longer what he used to be earlier.

Roach said, “If Charlo was fighting the version of Canelo before he fought Golovkin, I would favor Canelo. But that’s not the case. This version of Canelo will not be able to handle Charlo. I think Charlo will have too much firepower for Canelo to handle, especially at the higher weight. Canelo needs to stay away from Charlo’s left hook. The question is, can Canelo stay away from Charlo’s left hook? I don’t think he can, which is why I’m picking Charlo by stoppage.”

Promoter’s estimation

Speaking to FightHype, Leonard Ellerbe believes that Canelo Alvarez has an arduous task to fend off Jermell Charlo’s challenge. The Light Middleweight champion is coming over two divisions to dislodge the Super Middleweight champion from his throne. Hence, the pressure on him remains comparatively less. Like many, Ellerbe also believes that Alvarez’s performance has recently declined.

According to him, Charlo will have to gain an upper hand early in the fight. He said, “I think he has to establish respect early. Establish that he’s the boss. Canelo, he’s a resilient fighter and an excellent defensive fighter.” He added, “There are many people who aren’t giving him [Jermell] a chance, which I think is the toughest crap ever. Jermell does a lot of things well, and one of his best attributes is his confidence. One thing you talk about with Jermell Charlo is he’s a winner… We’ve seen him come from behind in fights…His confidence level is going to be at an all-time high because he knows what he’s up against on the 30th of September. It’s going to be a tremendous fight.”

Final Thoughts

Undoubtedly, the fight between the two undisputed champions is one of a kind. Let’s check how both boxers stand against each other based on a few criteria:

Skills

Eddy Reynoso and his team have turned Canelo Alvarez into a peerless fighter. A devastating combination of speed, power, and a far-improved defensive game has helped him elevate his performance by leaps and bounds. On the other hand, Charlo is also known for his explosive approach and capability to punish adversaries. More so, he has developed a keenness for early stoppages in the last few years. He often opts for breaking down the opponents over the rounds.

Winner: Canelo Alvarez

Punches

Neither of the fighters is a big-time hitter. However, with 39 of his victories coming through knockouts, Canelo Alvarez enjoys a slight edge over Jermell Charlo, whose 19 wins came via early stoppages. Additionally, the burden falls on the American boxer since he has never knocked down a fighter weighing above 154 pounds.

Winner: Canelo Alvarez

Chin

Both boxers stand on equal footing in this category. But here also, after having spent eighteen years in boxing without ever being knocked out, Canelo Alvarez remains one of the proud boxers with a granite chin. The same could be said for Jermell Charlo. He suffered his first career loss to Tony Harrison thanks to a decision. But once again, the punches he has thus received were from boxers who belong to the Light Middleweight division. In a professional fight, he has yet to receive a hit from someone from a higher-weight division.

Winner: Canelo Alvarez

In addition to his vast experience, an advantage in available parameters, as highlighted above, might tilt the scale in Canelo Alvarez’s favor. However, as it goes in boxing, the tables may turn with Jermell Charlo coming up with something new and unexpected to shock the undisputed Super Middleweight champion.

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Between Alvarez and Charlo, who is your favorite to win on Saturday night? Please share your thoughts and views with us in the comments below.

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