It was one of 2025’s most anticipated fights. Sadly, it failed to materialize and was added to the list of fights that never happened. However, after months of uncertainty, the title fight between Sebastian Fundora and Keith Thurman has finally come together. Tonight, headlining a PBC-Amazon Prime card, the two light middleweights face off at the historic MGM Grand Arena.

Much of the talk has centered on whether Thurman can overcome the odds and claim a championship at this stage of his long career. The outcome is equally important for Fundora, who eyes a marquee matchup against interim champion Vergil Ortiz. So whose night is it going to be? To answer that, we’ve pulled together a few key details to assess how the fight may play out.

Who has better stats and record?

If it is only about record and experience, then Keith Thurman enjoys a clear edge. While his resume is marked by long breaks and inactivity, it still draws attention for the marquee fights he has had since making his debut in 2007. To highlight the contrast, when he defended the WBA welterweight title in 2016, Fundora was just making his professional debut.

That experience also reflects in the numbers. With 23 wins (out of 31) secured inside the distance, his 74% knockout-to-win rate stays above Fundora’s 65% strike rate (15 KOs out of 23 wins). Where the records align for both the champion and the challenger is in the loss column. Both Fundora and Thurman have suffered one loss each in their careers – Fundora to Brian Mendoza and Thurman to Manny Pacquiao.

Sebastian Fundora vs. Keith Thurman: Height, weight, reach comparison, and more

Physically, it may well be one of the most mismatched fights in recent memory. Fundora stands 6 feet and 5.5 inches (197 centimeters) tall and has an 80-inch (203-centimeter) reach. That is an enormous 8-inch and 11-inch advantage in height and reach, respectively, over Thurman.

For his last fight against Tim Tszyu, Fundora weighed 152.6 pounds. Thurman, meanwhile, weighed slightly heavier when he fought Brock Jarvis last March.

Sebastian Fundora vs. Keith Thurman: Style breakdown and fight prediction

Fundora remains one of modern boxing’s biggest anomalies. For his height and massive reach, he is a light middleweight who prefers getting inside his opponent’s range. It may not be a style that came naturally to him, though.

Because opponents of similar height are rare, he often crouches and works his way inside. Add in his nearsightedness, and the southpaw is forced to operate at close-to-mid-range. But Fundora offsets those limitations by applying high-volume pressure.

Relying on this approach over the years, he has become an expert in inside fighting. While he uses his long arms to land from a distance, they also allow him to throw shots from awkward angles. His fight with Brian Mendoza, who appears on the co-main event of the card, displayed Fundora’s fearless streak. He is not afraid of trading at close range, even at the risk of getting knocked down.

Standing across from him is Keith Thurman, who presents a different kind of challenge. The Clearwater native may be approaching his late 30s (he turns 38 this November), yet his 12-round knockout of Jarvis shows that Thurman still retains the power that earned him the nickname “One Time.”

It would be inaccurate to label the former world champion strictly as a knockout artist. While he can end fights with a single shot, Thurman is known for delivering precise punches with power. A highly mobile fighter who prefers to use the full ring, Thurman moves laterally, creating angles to set up his shots.

Where he could trouble Fundora is in close quarters, where he can fire quick counters as Fundora steps into range. Notably, Thurman can also target Fundora’s exposed body by slipping inside his jab.

Prediction

Most fans and oddsmakers have already made their picks. Sebastian Fundora remains the favorite to win tonight’s fight. However, there is still anticipation around whether Thurman could pull off an upset. That explains why some still back the former titleholder.

Activity plays a major role in those decisions. It has been over 12 months since Thurman last stepped into the ring, while Fundora last fought in July. That recent activity could give Fundora a slight edge, although he is also returning from a hand injury.

Still, after reviewing the styles, physical attributes, and records, it appears Fundora could be poised to score a stoppage in the championship rounds if Thurman fades late.