On Thursday, Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc waged war on each other. Mercedes versus Ferrari—the battle for P2 in the Constructors’ Championship. As both drivers vowed to guide their team to that spot after Red Bull, fighting until the very end, that’s more a long-term goal. In a more short-term goal—that is, the Japanese GP—Hamilton & Co. have waged war on McLaren. Turns out, the Brackley squad might just have an advantage over the Woking outfit.

Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris have looked on top of their form throughout the weekend. With a new upgrade package on both their cars in Japan, they’ve been maximizing the MCL60’s potential. Especially when it mattered. In qualifying. Per a Mercedes team personnel, although McLaren may have gotten the advantage on Saturday, Hamilton & Co. have the upper hand on Sunday.

Lewis Hamilton is set for a recovery drive at the Japanese GP

At Suzuka, everything went back to normal. The normal? Red Bull and Max Verstappen setting the pace. The Singapore GP was a blip for the championship leaders. That allowed Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes to capitalize. And they did. But now that the reins are back in Red Bull’s hands, everyone else can only fight for second-best. In qualifying, McLaren was right up there with Red Bull. Albeit a six-tenths gap to Verstappen, Oscar Piastri will line up in P2, and Lando Norris in P3. In comparison, Hamilton will start P7, and George Russell in P8.

Since Friday’s running started, it became clear that Mercedes, despite an upgrade package, wasn’t as good as in Singapore. Even so, its race pace is still comparable to McLaren’s. But what advantage does Mercedes have? Per Bradley Lord, its Communications Director, “The cause of optimism is that we have two sets of hards, whilst McLaren has mediums, so we could use that as a trump card.” Considering the tire degradation, the $2700-worth hard tires (that Hamilton and Russell have two sets of, equating to $5400) will be the ideal race tire.

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Suzuka, quite uncharacteristically, has very high tire degradation rates this year. Although Red Bull is just as good as it’s always been, every other team has struggled. Given that both McLaren drivers have only new medium tires for the race, the W14s should have an edge over them.

After “Tough” Singapore Podium, Will Lewis Hamilton Be Able to Fend off a Resurgent George Russell at Suzuka?

With Mercedes’ race pace looking good, Hamilton and Russell will try to make decent headway from the start to challenge the McLarens further up ahead. While fighting against the McLarens is an achievable goal for Sunday’s race, Hamilton revealed one thing that’s not in the cards.

The Japanese GP will not see a repeat of the Marina Bay show

Last time out, Verstappen and Red Bull struggled in Singapore. In light of that, everyone else made the most of what felt like a once-in-2023 opportunity. Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz won the race, followed by Norris in P2 and Hamilton in P3. The biggest boost for Mercedes after the race wasn’t that it achieved a podium. Rather, it was that the W14 was in the fight for the win. That’s right. Hamilton came oh-so-close to winning a record-extending 104th race but fell just short.

With upgrades in Suzuka, Mercedes would’ve expected to keep up its form. But that didn’t happen. After Singapore, Hamilton said that whenever Mercedes introduced upgrades, it was like he had to learn to drive a completely new car. It seems like that’s precisely what’s happened in Japan, too. When asked about his chances after Friday practice, Hamilton said, “We definitely won’t be winning this weekend, but if I can maybe move up a little bit further up the order. [But it’s going to be] a tough one.”

Who will come out on top on Sunday? Lewis Hamilton and George Russell, or Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris?

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