Opening Day sets the stage. And the Giants, after a whirlwind offseason, are betting the house on 2024. As Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic bluntly states, the Giants “are no longer content to try to punch up against the competition… They’ve reset expectations.” Yet, this strategy comes with risk.

Such has been highlighted by the potential for both Blake Snell and free-agent signee Matt Chapman to opt out of their deals after this season. The Giants gambled big on Snell and Chapman—but with both eyeing the exit, questions loom in the San Francisco air. Did they jump the gun too soon—or will their seasoned roster still outplay the pricey newcomers, especially Snell?

Despite the $62 million splash the San Francisco Giants made by inking Blake Snell just days before Opening Day, it appears unlikely the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner will take the mound first for the team. Snell’s late arrival and lack of Spring Training reps with the Giants’ staff point squarely to incumbent ace Logan Webb remaining the Opening Day starter. And the team isn’t messing with success when it comes to Webb.

After finishing second to Snell in last year’s Cy Young voting, Logan Webb has ramped up his spring training flawlessly. Manager Bob Melvin has already slotted him into the rotation, noting an effective changeup and slider. The Giants believe that despite the shiny new acquisition, Webb’s experience with the team is a critical factor in the Opening Day nod.

While Blake Snell brings an undeniable pedigree to the Giants, his inconsistent track record caused a less lucrative free agent market than anticipated. MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince observes, “Snell can confound with his command concerns and be the baddest man on the mound, in equal terms. It’s both fun and frightening to watch him do his thing.”

Read More: Blake Snell’s Marathon Free Agency Finally Concludes with SF Giants’ Splashy 2-Year, $62M Deal

The Giants’ gamble, however, is that a shorter-term contract and a reunion with his former manager, Melvin, can bring out the best of both Snell and their rotation in the process. Especially considering that Snell won’t probably be there this Opening Day to helm it… for obvious reasons.

Rotation depth a strength with Blake Snell, but Opening Day still up for grabs

The Giants’ rotation appears formidable on paper, especially as Alex Cobb (hip) and Robbie Ray (Tommy John surgery) rehabilitate. Several market reports see the Giants as emergent “Wild Card favorites,” potentially vying with the rest of the NL West powerhouses.

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However, despite the depth, the fifth rotation spot—and Snell’s eventual placement—remains a question mark. Jordan Hicks, top prospect Kyle Harrison, and Keaton Winn are all in the running. It seems likely that Snell will need to prove himself before securing a top spot.

While Blake Snell’s addition significantly boosts the Giants’ postseason chances, it seems Webb’s experience and readiness give him the edge for the coveted Opening Day start. The Giants’ aggressive offseason leaves little room for error, and Snell will need to quickly find his groove to displace the team’s established ace.