Carlos Rodon’s first season in Pinstripes didn’t quite meet the hype. Sure, the high-powered lefty can light up the radar gun, but a 3-8 record and an ERA ballooning close to 7.00 raised major red flags for New York Yankees fans. Yet, a deeper dive into his stats reveals hidden strengths, suggesting some bad luck might have marred his debut.

As we head into 2024, one burning question lingers: is Rodon a one-season flop, or a superstar poised for a comeback? Will he recapture the magic that made him an All-Star with the Chicago White Sox, or are his best days behind him? Let’s dissect the projections and see if this Yankee has the grit to defy expectations.

Carlos Rodon ’24 vs. ’23: Is There Room for Optimism?

Despite the lackluster surface results, a closer look at Rodon’s 2023 season suggests there’s reason for hope. His strikeout rate remained strong and advanced metrics like FanGraphs’ FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) point to better results than his inflated ERA might indicate.

FanGraphs’ projections for Rodon in 2024 are particularly positive. Their Depth Charts system envisions a significant uptick in innings pitched, a continuation of his impressive strikeout numbers, and an 3.82 ERA—much closer to his career norms. A FIP around 3.77 suggests that Rodon might have been unlucky in 2023, with factors outside his control inflating his earned run numbers. But the projections are mixed.

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Baseball-Reference’s projections paint a slightly less optimistic picture. While they project a dip in ERA to 4.09, their win-loss outlook for Rodon suggests that the Yankees can only expect a .500 record from their big-money lefty. Looking at these different projections leaves us with one central question: which version of Carlos Rodon will we see in the upcoming season?

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The Verdict? Still More Questions

So, will 2024 be a bounce-back year for Rodon? The answer seems to be… maybe.

Statistically, there’s enough evidence to suggest that Carlos Rodon is ready to course-correct after a rocky 2023 debut. But without a crystal ball, the projections only tell half the story. Rodon’s dominance rests partially on his health and ability to make necessary adjustments—unknowns not directly measured by statistics.

Read More: New York Yankees’ Nestor Cortes Jr. Reveals Spring Training Progress, Shares Carlos Rodon Milestone Amidst Redemption Hopes

Ultimately, all eyes will be on him during Spring Training and into the regular season. If he can harness his undeniable talent, Carlos Rodon has every chance of silencing the doubters and once again establishing himself as an All-Star caliber force. Looks like it’s high time to get our own regal Rodon redemption arc!