The New York Yankees play a high-stakes game of chess, with every piece on their board arriving calculated and considered. For building the Bronx bullpen, they face a classic quandary: buy established stars or bet on their own ability to mold potential into diamond-grade dominance? Clay Holmes, with his stellar performance since donning the pinstripes, embodies that very question. Is the promise of consistency worth the price tag in a world where the Yankees have a proven track record of finding diamond-in-the-rough relievers?

And then there’s the looming shadow of Juan Soto and his inevitable record-shattering contract come 2025. Paying top dollar for Holmes now could lock them out of that generational talent later. Does the Yankees’ magic run deep enough to find another closer without breaking the bank? Are they truly willing to pass on one established athlete just to wait on a bigger potential payoff?

Clay Holmes and the Cost of Consistency

Holmes has been lights-out since joining the Yankees in 2021. “Holmes is not a Mariano Rivera-esque metronome,” writes insider Joel Sherman in The New York Post, but he adds that Holmes “has been among the handful of best relievers in the sport since his New York arrival.” Despite the occasional rough patch, he’s earned his stripes as a dependable closer.

But that dependability could cost the Bombers big. Sherman speculates that Holmes could be the top closer option on the 2025 free-agent market, meaning securing him long term will not be cheap.

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While the potential of losing Clay Holmes stings, one has to consider the Yankees’ remarkable talent for rebuilding their bullpen. “After all, when they traded for Holmes he had a 5.57 ERA…and that among what this organization does best is identify distressed relief pitchers with skills they like and maximize those skills,” notes Sherman.

General Manager Brian Cashman’s recent moves—acquiring Clayton Andrews and trading away Matt Krook—hint that the team remains focused on finding those bullpen diamonds in the rough. However, the elephant in the pinstriped room remains Juan Soto’s contract.

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The Soto Factor

After the 2024 season, Soto’s likely to command a record-shattering deal. As Yankee Go Yard warns, “Trying to work out an extension with Soto feels like it would do more harm than good,” noting that a player of Soto’s caliber, particularly one represented by Scott Boras, will inevitably test the open market. That astronomical contract hangs over any other significant financial decisions the Yankees make.

Should the Yankees go all-in on Holmes and commit to paying a premium, or trust their knack for developing relief pitchers? As always, the answer likely lies somewhere in the middle. While Clay Holmes’ consistency is undoubtedly valuable, waiting until after the 2024 season and seeing where he stands alongside other bullpen options—both existing and newly unearthed—may prove strategically smarter, especially in light of Soto’s impending free agency.

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The clock is ticking for the Yankees to decide if they want to strike the right balance between buying proven commodities and trusting their scouting magic.