A few months ago, they were the darlings of spring. The team that everyone agreed was ahead of schedule, young, fearless, and full of potential. The preseason projections were generous: 45% playoff odds. That was higher than the defending Rangers. Higher than the Yankees. And things went downhill from there.

Halfway through the 2025 season, it’s not the Rockies or the White Sox drawing gasps for underachievement; it’s the Baltimore Orioles, a $1.9 billion franchise stuck in quicksand. Despite a winning streak, Baltimore is heading into the All-Star break with a 40–49 record, sitting at 13th place in the American League with slim playoff chances at just 4.1%. This marks the decline in playoff odds, among all MLB teams this season, a situation that can be described as not just unfortunate but reaching nearly catastrophic levels.

Here’s the thing. The crash wasn’t sudden. It began slowly, then gave away all at once. A shaky rotation unraveled in April. Key bats slumped in May. And while the team has gone 21–13 since a low point in late May, including a sweep of Atlanta, the damage was already done. For every optimist who can chart a narrow path to the postseason, there’s a realist pointing at a deep AL field and a brutally tight Wild Card race.

This is what a failed leap forward looks like. One moment, you’re penciling in playoff rotations; the next, you’re counting how many controllable arms you can get in return. The worst part? They’re still better than their early-season selves. But when your floor caves in that fast, even a midseason resurgence feels too late. So no, it’s not the usual suspects stumbling. It’s Baltimore, and no one saw it coming this hard or this fast.

 Where did it go downhill for the Orioles?

The Orioles’ springboard into 2025 jammed as soon as April rolled in. They limped through the first month with a 12–18 record, saddled with the worst rotation ERA in the AL at 6.04, a full run worse than the next team. General manager Mike Elias chalked it up to injuries and a shaky offseason plan; after Corbin Burnes signed elsewhere, their replacement strategy, namely, Grayson Rodríguez, Zach Eflin, Trevor Rogers, and Charlie Morton, backfired spectacularly. By late April, manager Brandon Hyde acknowledged the “bruised, banged-up, beleaguered” rotation through four turns, with Morton floundering at an 8.84 ERA, Povich walking unremarkably at 6.38 ERA, and Sugano the lone reliable arm.

Then came May with another wave of collapse. Kyle Gibson, signed to fortify the staff, opened up Tampa Bay’s campaign with an 0–3 record and a jaw-dropping 16.78 ERA, the final nail in his short-lived Orioles tenure. And in Arlington on July 3, Tomoyuki Sugano got battered again, yielding six runs over just 4⅔ innings in a 6–0 shutout loss to the Rangers, pushing his recent ERA across five starts to an alarming 8.87. This parade of sinking starts starved the Orioles’ offense of runway, forcing them to play catch‑up nearly every night.

On the hitting front, it never clicked. Camden Chat summarized the collapse brutally: Baltimore logged the fewest runs per game in 15 years, and its hit rate plunged to levels unseen since 1968. Adley Rutschman, usually a clutch spark, slumped to a .197/.295/.328 slash line with negative WPA. Meanwhile, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and others hung in frustrating slumps. Westburg even went 0 for 30 before landing on the IL. Their bats exited innings before the starters even took their seats, ensuring the pitching rookies had no margin for error.

In short, neither sticks nor stones could stop this collapse, just sheer, systemic breakdown at both ends of the field.