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MLB, Baseball Herren, USA NLCS-New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers Oct 14, 2024 Los Angeles, California, USA Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani 17 at bat in the first inning against the New York Mets during game two of the NLCS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles Dodger Stadium California USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xJaynexKamin-Onceax 20241014_lbm_aj4_029

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MLB, Baseball Herren, USA NLCS-New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers Oct 14, 2024 Los Angeles, California, USA Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani 17 at bat in the first inning against the New York Mets during game two of the NLCS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles Dodger Stadium California USA, EDITORIAL USE ONLY PUBLICATIONxINxGERxSUIxAUTxONLY Copyright: xJaynexKamin-Onceax 20241014_lbm_aj4_029
Shohei Ohtani added his own unparalleled talent to an already star-studded team, creating sky-high expectations. Through the first part of the 2025 season, “Shotime” has provided no shortage of highlights, displaying his unique combination of power and speed. But one particular statistical trend is starting to catch some eyes and raise some eyebrows amidst the impressive numbers.
Shohei Ohtani’s recent performances mixes brilliance with moments of struggle. Over his last five games entering April 29th, he hit a solid .350. He broke out against the Pirates on the 26th, going 3-for-5 with two doubles, a triple, and a stolen base. He also hit home runs in back-to-back games against Pittsburgh and Miami. However, interspersed were games like April 23rd against the Cubs (1-for-5, 1 SO) and April 25th versus the Pirates (0-for-4, 1 SO), reminding everyone of the strikeout concerns lurking not far beneath the surface. Not just that! Ohtani’s batting average dropped to .224 over his last 14 games, compared to the season average of .261 and last year’s .310.
The concern prompted a fiery response from FOX Sports analyst Ben Verlander on his “Flippin’ Bats” podcast. “(. 290) with a .925 OPS is really good,” Verlander admitted, referencing Ohtani’s overall line. “You take that 99 times out of 100.” But Verlander highlighted the exception: “The one time you don’t take that is probably when you’re the Dodgers and looking at Shohei Ohtani.” He pointed out Ohtani’s 32 strikeouts, the second most on the team at the time. Verlander sees parallels to Ohtani’s Angels days without Mike Trout’s protection, noting pitchers are now “unintentionally intentionally” avoiding him, leading to struggles when facing “perfection” on the edges.
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The numbers appear to support Verlander’s read on how Ohtani is being pitched. Though Ohtani is swinging less than he did in 2018 and swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone, his strikeout rate is a worrying 29.9%. That ratio is significantly higher than his elite 2024 mark (21.9%). The biggest villain seems to be his significantly lower contact rate (O-Contact%) on pitches outside the strike zone, swinging at bad pitches, and missing them.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts also has discussed his superstar’s approach during this period. Roberts noted that Ohtani might be pressing at the plate at times. “Just got too big with the swing,” Roberts remarked. He added that Ohtani might have been “overswinging” and “over-aggressive” at times.
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Shohei Ohtani’s elite offensive profile
But looking at only the strikeouts would be oversimplifying Ohtani’s steady dominance. His overall offensive production still lives solidly in elite territory within the confines of the sport. His .925 OPS entering late April places him among the league leaders. Advanced metrics like his xwOBA (Expected Weighted On-Base Average) suggested his underlying contact quality was exceptional, ranking in the 96th percentile. And his high-end average exit velocity (97th percentile) and hard-hit rate (98th percentile) confirm he consistently crushes the ball when he connects.
It’s also worth remembering that Ohtani has weathered stormy seas and come out stronger. After struggling significantly in the shortened 2020 season while recovering from injury (.190 batting average), he roared back. Even in his magnificent 2021 MVP season, he experienced a small post-All-Star slump before quickly finding his rhythm again. More recently, in his historic 50-homer, 50-steal 2024 season, he briefly went 0-for-11 before snapping out of it with authority. History shows the Japanese superstar possesses remarkable resilience and adjusts effectively.
Looking around the league, other superstars manage high strikeout totals while producing immense value. Aaron Judge boasts a slightly higher OPS (.940) with fewer strikeouts (~22%). Bobby Witt Jr., on the other hand, is a source of elite contact (rate ~17 %) and speed, but slightly less power (.880 OPS). Ohtani’s 29.9% K-rate is the highest of this elite tier, pointing toward something that still needs improvement, but no one else on this list offers the power-speed package (6 HR, 7 SB).
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What’s your perspective on:
Is Shohei Ohtani's strikeout rate a real concern, or just a minor bump in his MVP journey?
Have an interesting take?
Despite the recent scrutiny and the elevated strikeout numbers, Shohei Ohtani remains a premier force in baseball. His underlying numbers are great, and his past tells us that adjustments should be on the way. The key question lingers as the season unfolds: How will Ohtani adapt his approach to counter the league’s careful strategies and fully unleash his MVP form once again?
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"Is Shohei Ohtani's strikeout rate a real concern, or just a minor bump in his MVP journey?"