The off-season has started with a bang for the Boston Red Sox. The front office has already made some big calls, and one of them could come to bite both sides. Cue in Lucas Giolito! 

ESPN highlighted in their piece that Giolito declined his end of the $19 million mutual option to become a free agent, but Boston could still offer him a one-year $22.025 million qualifying offer. Moreover, also mentioned that while Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5 million deal before the 2024 season, right now a lower figure makes sense.

“Giolito missed the entire 2024 season because of elbow surgery but had a solid bounce-back showing in 2025, posting a 3.41 ERA in 145 innings. He profiles as a fourth starter whose strikeout rate dropped from 26% in 2023 to 20% in 2025. Giolito signed a two-year, $38.5 million deal before the 2024 season, and I think two years makes sense again, but at a slightly lower figure this time.” This pay cut is a tough pill to swallow for him!

The news had broken on Monday when Rob Bradford reported that Boston declined its end of the mutual option. Not long after, Alex Pier from The Boston Globe confirmed Giolito’s plan to do the same and send him to free agency.

Now, Lucas Gioloto’s numbers were great in 2025, although not spectacular. He missed all of last season recovering from elbow surgery. But he bounced back with a 3.41 ERA over 245 innings. But even then, his strikeout rate dipped, as ESPN highlighted, from 26% to 20% this season—a clear sign that the swing-and-miss stuff might not be what it used to be before.

Boston, meanwhile, is focused elsewhere, between trying to re-sign Ale Bregman and targeting a No. 2 starter. They are already flirting with the luxury tax threshold, and a $22 million qualifying offer to Lucas Giolito might be a luxury that they can’t afford.

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For Giolito, this could be a rather tough winter. His traditional stats all show that he has gas in his tank, but teams that dig into the deeper metrics might spot the red flags. And given the market already has mid-rotation arms jam-packed, there is a huge chance that his value does dip below expectations. If that happens, Giolito’s gamble could backfire in one of the harshest ways possible.

Could Tarik Skubal be the Boston Red Sox’s missing piece? 

The Boston Red Sox right now seem to have one big goal, and that’s adding a frontline starter. According to The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, Boston might prefer trading for a proven ace to diving into the free agent market. And the name floating around is none other than the Tigers’ ace Tarik Skubal.

Skubal and the Tigers are apparently far apart in the contract talks, with the left-hander set to hit free agency after the next season. If the Tigers don’t see a plausible deal coming, then moving him now at least gives him a major return. Buster Olney thinks that the Red Sox are well-positioned to make a serious offer for him. “The only sure thing in this situation, it seems, is that Skubal will not sign a long-term deal with Detroit before he reaches free agency.”

That’s where Boston comes in. The Boston Red Sox already have an ace in Garret Crochet. But imagine pairing him with the reigning Cy Young winner—that will be one of the league’s most dominant rotations. Skubal, meanwhile, has followed his 2024 heroics by leading the league in ERA (2.21) and WHIP (0.891), striking out 241 batters across 195.1 innings.

Boston has both the talent and the financial flexibility to make it happen. Whether it’s MLB-ready players like Jarren Duran or prospects such as Marcelo Mayer, the Boston Red Sox can give a deal the Tigers might want. But for now, questions on whether they would spend a huge amount on Skubal when options like Joe Ryan still remain are still something to consider.

What do you think? Can Ryan be a better option?