Love it or hate it, Amazon Prime is here to stay for yet another racing weekend, and its rise is impossible to ignore. NASCAR’s Prime Video debut at the Coca-Cola 600 made waves, averaging 2.72 million viewers, with the audience peaking at 2.92 million near mid-race. And while FOX’s coverage still beat those numbers, one thing stood out about Prime’s coverage, and that statistic is turning out to be a bit misleading.

As Amazon stakes its claim in live racing, it has brought about a major shift in the viewing demographic. Younger audiences seem more engaged with the sport, which was the goal of NASCAR going into this deal, but not everything seems picture-perfect. Behind the buzz lies an undercurrent of concern. While the peak was notable, overall ratings dipped, and that spells trouble if not addressed.

The truth about NASCAR’s Prime Video venture

Sports Media Watch, which is run by Jon Lewis, dropped some striking figures on X about NASCAR’s first races on Amazon Prime Video, comparing them to the same three races (Charlotte, Nashville, and Michigan) last year on FOX and FS1 (Charlotte, St. Louis, and Sonoma). Though Amazon Prime Video’s streaming of the NASCAR Cup Series has averaged 2.27 million viewers through these three races, it is down 21% from last year’s three equivalent races, which averaged 2.88 million. Sure, total viewership took a dip, but that’s not the whole story.

Prime video lit up where it matters most, posting a whopping 32% spike among 18-34-year-olds, an 11% gain in the all-important 18-49 bracket, and a 21% bump in 25-54-year-olds. The message is loud and clear: the old guard may be turning out, but a fresh, younger NASCAR crowd is logging in. And Sports Media Watch is here for it. They acknowledge that, ” Most TV properties will take that exchange. 18-34s don’t watch TV, any growth makes up for steep drop in older demos.” 

In response, Sports Business Journal’s Adam Stern quoted Paulsen on X, who posted via Sports Media Watch, saying, “Year one of NASCAR on Prime Video is thus far playing out much like the streamer’s debut of Thursday Night Football three years ago, with viewership down double-digits overall—but up double-digits in the key young adult demographics.” 

However, older audiences (55+) dropped by 40%, resulting in an overall viewership decline of 21%! Prime is resonating with the next generation of race fans, but it’s coming at a cost. The shift toward younger, digitally native viewers may be more valuable long-term. For advertisers chasing youth and for NASCAR hoping to future-proof its audience, these early days of Prime Video returns offer plenty of upside. But is this worth losing out on the support of core NASCAR fans?

Meanwhile, a seismic shakeup in the media world could shift the playing field even further. On Monday, Warner Bros. Discovery announced it would split into two companies. The new global networks division—home to all cable properties like TNT Sports and CNN—will absorb the lion’s share of the company’s 37 billion dollar debt.

Starting in 2025 and under NASCAR’s new seven-year media deal (2025-2031), NBC’s got 14 races locked in, while TNT Sports and Amazon Prime Video split 5 Cup races apiece. TNT’s also handling practice and qualifying during the summer stretch. But with global networks now saddled with a mountain of debt and cable viewership sinking fast, folks are starting to wonder: how much longer can TNT hang on?

That’s why Amazon steps in, big wallet and all. They’re already dropping a cool billion dollars a year for Thursday night football and $1.8 billion for NBA streaming rights. If TNT backs off, don’t be surprised if those five races land in Prime’s cart. With rave reviews for his debut broadcast team and slick production, Amazon isn’t just knocking on the door; it might already be NASCAR’s new home base.

As the TV vs Streaming debate rages on, one of the most welcomed faces in the shift to streaming, Dale Earnhardt Jr., is going through some strife ahead of NASCAR’s bold international move.

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Dale Jr.’s race against time and flights

One of the biggest questions heading into NASCAR’s historic weekend in Mexico City is just who will win; it’s whether Dale Earnhardt Jr. will even make it there. The fan-favorite analyst and 2x Daytona 500 champ has been a key voice in Prime Video’s NASCAR season, but as of midweek, his plans are anything but set in stone.

Earlier this year, Junior signed on to join Amazon Prime Video and TNT Sports for their slice of the NASCAR new broadcasting deal. He’s already become a fixture in the booth for prime coverage. “I think that all the networks push each other to put good products out on Sunday,” Earnhardt Jr. said in May, via Yahoo Sports. “Amazon will bring some really cool ideas and new ways of looking and approaching the sport that will push everybody to do better and be better. I’m grateful to be part of that team. I’m excited to see the fans’ reaction to it. There will be some things that look very similar and some new stuff as well that will be fun.” 

But while fans are eager to hear his insights for NASCAR’s first international points-paying race in decades, there’s a real chance the headset goes silent. On Wednesday, the Hall of Famer revealed the bizarre travel snag that has some scrambling for a Plan B. Junior took to X on Wednesday and reported, “Planned flight to Mexico City apparently is in Singapore stuck in maintenance and I will need to be seeking alternative solutions.”

As NASCAR heads south of the border, all eyes will be on Prime Video to see if Dale Junior makes it on time.