Austin Cindric entered the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with high expectations after a strong spring, which included a win at Talladega Superspeedway. Team Penske’s No. 2 Ford has generally been a force on intermediate tracks, with teammates Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney running consistently at the front. But recent races have shown cracks in Cindric’s performance. At New Hampshire Motor Speedway, he finished 17th while his teammates did well. Cindric now sits 10th with 19 points below the cutline. Though he was predicted to fare well initially, analysts have now started to question his ability to perform.

Consistency is everything in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, and Cindric’s laps have not reflected the reliability Penske hoped for. While his teammates secured top finishes on similar tracks, he struggled with a mix of qualifying mishaps and on-track incidents. With Kansas Speedway looming as the next critical race, analysts have been dissecting these performances and have given a bold prediction for the No. 2 driver.

Cindric predicted for elimination

On the Teardown Podcast, Jeff Gluck broke down Cindric’s struggles in real time. He admitted that before the NHMS race, he was optimistic. “I was the only one who had Cindric moving into the next round.” But optimism gave way to concern as Gluck walked through what went wrong: “He just wasn’t up there. He got damaged from a wreck at one point and lost track position. He was going to qualify top five but slid out of the last corner and lost a bunch of time, starting further back.”

Cindric started 22nd after recording a qualifying time of 29.592 seconds, something that he himself was not happy with. “I definitely botched my lap in qualifying, which set us back,” he said. Even with Penske’s strong track record on these tracks, Cindric could not recover. His playoff position is now more fragile than ever, showing that talent alone can’t always overcome in-race setbacks.

Jordan Bianchi added to the critique, pointing to Cindric’s season-long inconsistency. “I just haven’t seen the speed and consistent performance from that group to think he’d advance, looking at how Penske is on these flat, one-mile tracks.” Cindric’s 19-point deficit places him well behind Ross Chastain, who sits 12 points out. It puts him even further behind Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace. Analysts are making it clear that even with Kansas Speedway ahead, his margin for error is vanishing.

Gluck also highlighted the playoff dynamics around Cindric. “Chastain going to Kansas is a huge opportunity for him. He won the last traditional mile-and-a-half track, the Coke 600. That was the last true intermediate race. I still think Chastain’s not out of it. Reddick’s 23 down, and Bubba Wallace is 27 down.” The comparison showed how competitive the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs have become. Even with Penske’s resources, Cindric’s inconsistent finishes and race-day misfortunes have led analysts to write off his advancement.

Cindric now faces an uphill battle in the remaining NASCAR Cup Series races. Kansas represents both a chance for redemption and a potential final test of his playoff credentials. Penske’s team strengths may provide strategic help, but at this point, execution under pressure will determine whether he survives.

After New Hampshire, Cindric himself reflected on what went wrong and what needs to change, offering insight into his mindset and strategy heading into the critical Kansas race.

Austin Cindric Reflects on NHMS Performance

Austin Cindric’s performance at New Hampshire Motor Speedway left much to be desired. The Penske star finished way behind teammates Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, who secured top-five finishes. In a post-race interview, Cindric acknowledged his struggles. “It’s probably what our average was throughout the day.” He attributed his difficulties to a combination of factors, including a subpar qualifying effort and challenges in executing his car’s long-run potential during the race.

Despite the team’s overall success, Cindric’s race was marred by an inability to capitalize on his car’s strengths. He reflected, “I thought we had a great long run car with our Ford Mustang, just weren’t able to capitalize on it.” The lack of stage points further complicated his position in the playoff standings.

Looking ahead, Cindric remains cautiously optimistic. He noted that many of his playoff competitors also faced challenges at NHMS. This may have mitigated the impact of his own performance. He emphasized the importance of consistent top-10 finishes and stage points in advancing through the playoffs. He even acknowledged that without such results, progression becomes increasingly difficult.

As the series moves to Kansas Speedway, Cindric recognizes the need for improvement. Ultimately, he expressed confidence in his team’s capabilities, stating, “We’re capable of it, and I believe in that.” However, repeating the same NHMS performance at Kansas would certainly be something that he would want to avoid.