Dale Jr. Predicts Early Playoff Exit for Two Big NASCAR Names

The Cook Out Southern 500 kicked off the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs on August 31, and it was a race that shook up the standings right from the start. Chase Briscoe repeated his last year’s win by leading 309 of 367 laps, a commanding performance that recalls the track’s storied history, where Johnny Mantz set the record for most laps led in a single Cup race there, guiding his car for 351 laps in the inaugural 1950 event. But as drivers navigated the “Lady in Black’s” unforgiving turns, several playoff hopefuls faced setbacks that tightened the battle for advancement. And now, with the points reset amplifying every position, the garage turned to trusted voices for insight on who might falter next.

Dale Earnhardt Jr., a Hall of Famer whose takes carry real influence in NASCAR circles, weighed in after the Darlington dust settled, spotlighting vulnerabilities that could end runs early for some contenders, specifically two of them. His analysis highlighted how consistency, or the lack of it, could decide fates in this cutthroat format. So who are these two drivers? And why does he see them at risk of missing the Round of 12?

Dale Earnhardt Jr predicts his playoff elimination

On the latest Dirty Mo Media podcast, Dale Earnhardt Jr. broke down the playoff picture post-Darlington, pinpointing Austin Cindric and Shane van Gisbergen as the two big names potentially headed for an early exit. “Cindric and SVG, who we, but we all were talking about might miss the next round. Those are the only two guys that I see any of these four down here, Logano, Dillon, Bowman, and Berry. I only see two spots available,” he explained, emphasizing the limited openings above the cutline.

Cindric, sitting ninth with a +12 cushion after a solid P12 finish at Darlington, still drew skepticism from Dale Jr. due to inconsistent showings, like his 39th-place run at Daytona and 38th at Atlanta. This stems from Cindric’s background as a road course specialist who won the 2022 Daytona 500 but has struggled for oval dominance, with only one top-5 and two top-10s in the last ten races before Darlington.

Dale Jr.’s concern for van Gisbergen runs deeper, tied to the Kiwi’s adaptation challenges in his first full Cup season. “Looking at the SVG. Looking at the rest of these guys, man,” Dale Jr. noted, signaling SVG’s precarious +3 position in 12th as bumpable. Van Gisbergen, who stunned with a Chicago Street Race win in his 2023 debut, has leaned on road courses for points but often faltered on ovals like Darlington, where he finished 32nd after early trouble, giving up crucial ground. His story echoes other international talents transitioning to NASCAR, where oval experience often takes seasons to build, much like Juan Pablo Montoya’s uneven Cup tenure despite open-wheel success.

Even with Cindric’s recent Gateway victory last year boosting his buffer, Dale Jr. questioned his lock status. “Cindric could have a rough day. He shows up sometimes in a run of 12 shows and some other times around 28,” he said, underscoring the Penske driver’s volatility. This prediction aligns with playoff history, where drivers like Ryan Blaney in 2023 overcame similar +12 spots to advance and eventually win that season, but others like Bubba Wallace crashed out early despite buffers.

And while Dale Jr. eyes risks for Cindric and SVG, he also touched on leadership in tough times, particularly how team owners like Rick Hendrick handle setbacks.

Dale Jr. defends Hendrick’s approach

Dale Earnhardt Jr. stood firmly behind Rick Hendrick‘s leadership style following Hendrick Motorsports’ mixed Darlington outing, where drivers like Alex Bowman and Josh Berry faced early woes. “Rick Hendrick has a unique ability to call everybody in on the carpet and ask for things to get better, and they always get better,” Dale Jr. shared, praising Hendrick’s hands-on support during slumps. This came after Bowman’s -19 deficit stemmed from a first-lap incident that bottomed out his car severely, an issue Dale Jr. highlighted as unusually harsh.

Hendrick, with 318 Cup wins since founding the team in 1984, has navigated similar lows, like the 2019 season, where no driver advanced past the Round of 8, yet rebounded to championships in 2020 and 2021. The endorsement underscores Hendrick’s philosophy of fostering loyalty, which Dale Jr. tied to long-term success.

Dale Jr.’s comments highlight why Hendrick’s steady hand remains a model, even after Darlington’s jumble. With the playoffs intensifying, Hendrick’s focus on crew morale, evident in his weekly driver meetings, positions the organization for comebacks, much like their recovery from a 2024 early-round stumble to multiple Round of 8 berths.