Chase Briscoe made a statement in qualifying for the 2025 Iowa Corn 350. He claimed the pole position at Iowa Speedway with a blistering lap of 136.933 mph, marking his sixth pole of the season in the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota. Yet, despite his dominance in qualifying, NASCAR fans are all too familiar with one frustrating reality. Starting from the pole guarantees nothing, especially if you look at the past few years.

With just four races left in the regular season, Briscoe faces mounting pressure to build momentum for the playoffs. And logically, a short-track victory from the pole is the perfect gift. However, overcoming this so-called “pole curse” will require more than just speed.

The short-track pole paradox

Despite the lure of early track position, short-track racing has shown in recent times that leading early doesn’t translate into winning. Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing dominate short-track poles, yet none of those (or other) pole sitters have converted to victory since 2019. The last time a driver won at a short track was when Denny Hamlin won the 2019 Bristol Night Race.

NASCAR analysts note that leaders often fall victim to tight grooves, tire wear, and restarts, undoing any early advantage. “Damn,” Larson reacted when he was informed about the shocking stat by Jeff Gluck. “That’s even the old car. That’s wild.” This weekend, Larson finished third behind Chase Briscoe and William Byron in the qualifying.

Speaking of Briscoe, his 2025 stats reflect speed across formats. He ranks first in poles (six) and boasts an average starting position of 10.348, plus 226 laps led and eight top‑5s through 22 races. But his short-track performance lags. He still hasn’t won a race at a short track. Moreover, this season, at Martinsville (P9) and Bristol (P4), his average finish remains outside the top three, signaling room for growth under pressure.

Similarly, in 2025, the Martinsville and Bristol pole sitters, Christopher Bell and Alex Bowman, finished 2nd and 37th, respectively, only amplifying the narrative. During the Martinsville race, following a restart on Lap 325, Denny Hamlin overtook Christopher Bell and maintained the position till the end. Meanwhile, at Bristol, Bowman faced an engine issue, which caused him to have a DNF.

For Chase Briscoe, that means Saturday night at Iowa isn’t just another start; it’s a test. Can he finally break the paradox and turn one-lap speed into a complete performance? Or will the short-track pole paradox claim another victim? Either way, with the playoffs looming and no short-track wins on his resume, the pressure’s building fast. “It’s definitely been great on Saturdays for our Bass Pro Shops Toyota. I would love to convert that to Sundays,” Briscoe said.

Other contenders to look for beyond the pole winner

With the historic pole-to-win drought in the center, attention turns to a few other candidates if the curse remains intact. Here are three drivers who could capitalize: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Ryan Blaney. Kyle Busch leads active Cup drivers with 16 short-track victories, more than anyone in the field. Yet, despite his dominance, his form has dipped in the last couple of years, which raises questions about his performance at Iowa. And a violent crash in practice has sent Kyle Busch to the back of the field for the race.

Next is Denny Hamlin. A short-track master in his own right, Hamlin holds 15 Cup wins on short ovals, but still hasn’t won at Iowa. Despite that, his 2025 campaign is hitting peak form: four wins, 24 playoff points, and 11 top‑fives to date. With his playoff lead and velocity peaking, Hamlin’s got both momentum and mastery. This makes him a major threat if the trend holds. However, he will have to work hard to gain the top spot as he has qualified 11th.

Finally, there’s Ryan Blaney. Though Blaney ranks lower among active short-track winners, his Iowa resume is unmatched. He led 201 of 350 laps en route to last year’s victory, giving him insider knowledge few others possess. He’s currently 7th in the standings with one win, seven top‑5s, ten top‑10s, and an impressive 10.5 average finish at short tracks. With a 6th-place qualification, he is very much in the hunt for the winner’s spot at the main event.

With just four races left before the playoffs, Chase Briscoe’s pole at Iowa is his best shot yet to rewrite NASCAR history. But if the pole curse holds, the odds favor proven short-track guns like Busch, Hamlin, or Blaney to slide into Victory Lane. Who do you think can break through if the favored pole sitter stumbles?