It is time to crown a new Cup champion. As we get closer to determining the answer to every season’s biggest question, predictions and bets from experts and bookmakers are coming in at a frenzied pace. Will Kyle Larson, the versatile maestro, start next year’s Daytona 500 alongside Kyle Busch and Joey Logano as a multiple championship winner? Or will statistics prevail, which suggest that Team Penske star Ryan Blaney is the driver with the best chance of triumphing?

Many fans and experts are not counting out another versatile driver, Joe Gibbs Racing‘s sole survivor Christopher Bell, either. On the other hand, Hendrick Motorsports‘ prodigy William Byron arrives at Phoenix Raceway as this season’s winningest driver with six wins to his name. The answer to the big question has always been challenging to decide but informed guesses are always welcome.

Can Christopher Bell avoid a repeat of 2022 at Phoenix?

Of the four title contenders, Christopher Bell and Kyle Larson are the only drivers with experience in the championship 4 race. Bell earned a debut finale appearance last season after winning the penultimate race in Martinsville. This season, he didn’t delay his qualification by much. A win in the second race of the Round of 8 in Homestead-Miami ensured he would be among the final 4.

Taking a deeper look at his track record in Phoenix, Bell also has the worst average finishing position among contenders. With an average finish of 14.4 in 7 races since 2020, the 28-year-old has been far from impressive at the raceway. The #20 Camry driver is yet to lead a single lap in these seven races and has only secured 4 top-10 finishes, with the highest finish being P6. While his average starting position has been relatively better at 10.0, he has failed to force himself into the front-pack more often than not.

Bell’s outing in the 2022 installment of the championship race ended with him finishing 10th even after getting as close to within 0.2 seconds of race leader Joey Logano at one point. Pit stops hurt the #20 team a lot last time, as they failed to gain places after falling to 16th.

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The driver closest to him is William Byron, winner of the United Rentals Work United 500 on March 12 in Phoenix. The 25-year-old talent has proven that he is among the brightest stars of the next generation. Taking over Jeff Gordon’s iconic #24, he boasts an average finish of 9.9 in Phoenix with one win to his name. Apart from that, 1 top 5 and 5 top 10s make him a formidable opponent for Sunday. He has also led 76 laps at the venue with a worst finishing position of 18th.

Compared to Christopher Bell, Byron has a slightly better average starting position of 9.9. This implies that the HMS driver has been far more impactful in the races at Phoenix. However, the two do not match up to Ryan Blaney if past performances are anything to go by.

Ryan Blaney is best posed to win at Phoenix despite their maiden appearance in the championship race

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Ryan Blaney tops the chart among the contenders with an average finish of 9.4 in the last seven races at the venue. Even in last year’s title decider, the #12 Mustang driver recorded a P2 finish despite being ousted in the playoffs. This is the first time Blaney has made it out of the penultimate elimination round successfully.

He has also led 321 laps in the same sample space, making him the driver with the third-highest number of laps led behind partner Joey Logano and 2020 champion Chase Elliott. With an average starting position of 4.7, Ryan Blaney has only finished once outside the top 10 in the last seven races at Phoenix. The statistics suggest that Blaney is the most prolific driver among the final four on this track and could very well run away with the title. Should his complacency and inconsistency not hinder him, he will be Ford’s dark horse on Sunday.

However, considering a combination of statistics and experience, Kyle Larson is the driver to beat. Having won the 2021 Cup Series championship in Phoenix, he brings invaluable experience to the table. Since 2020, Larson has raced on the track 6 times, and his average finish of 9.8 is slightly below Blaney’s. However, it would have been much better if not for a 34th-place finish due to a mechanical failure in last year’s spring race.

The #5 Camaro driver has finished in the top 10 five times and top 5 thrice in this period. An excellent starting position of 3.2 has been key to a strong finish for him. He has also led a whopping 313 laps. From the looks of it, Sunday’s battle seems popcorn-worthy. Team strategy and luck will undoubtedly play a huge role as we move to crown a new NASCAR Cup Series champion.

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