Denny Hamlin enters the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs as one of the front-runners, setting the tone for a fiercely competitive postseason. Among the playoff contenders is rookie sensation Shane van Gisbergen (SVG), who, despite an impressive campaign, faces a daunting challenge on the oval tracks that dominate the playoff schedule. And now, Hamlin has openly shared his thoughts and predictions, signaling potential hurdles ahead for SVG and others.

Van Gisbergen, in his first full Cup season, has clinched Rookie of the Year with four road course wins, five top-10s, and 250+ laps led. Though oval tracks remain a challenge, his 22 playoff points rank fifth, giving him a vital edge entering the postseason. But what lies ahead is no easy ride, Denny Hamlin has made that clear.

Denny Hamlin’s playoff predictions and caution

Hamlin’s recent comments delivered a wake-up call not just for Shane van Gisbergen, but for every driver just above the playoff cut line. When pressed to pick his first four out after the first round, which includes Darlington, Gateway, and Bristol, Hamlin didn’t hesitate: “Dillon, Barry, Cindric… and SVG,” he said, pointing to SVG’s inexperience on NASCAR ovals and the unforgiving nature of these tracks.

He elaborated, “It’ll be a challenge. But here, he’s got twenty-two actual bonus points… he’s not in a bad spot. All he needs is a few of these guys to have lackluster days and he goes in there, finishes top twenty, top twenty, and he’ll find himself in a decent spot going in that last cutoff race.” Hamlin’s appraisal was direct but balanced, blending respect for SVG’s road course success, four Cup wins, all on road tracks, including Watkins Glen, with a realistic look at the oval learning curve.

“He’s been progressing and getting better on the ovals. At the beginning of the year, he was definitely a last-place contender on the ovals, but he’s not that now. I think he’s putting himself in the low 20s to teens sometimes,” Hamlin noted on his podcast.

Even so, Hamlin’s first four-out prediction signals just how little margin SVG has as he enters playoff territory, where established racers like Bowman, Reddick, Logano, Chastain, and Wallace are set to make speed the deciding factor.

Denny Hamlin’s stance isn’t mere skepticism; it’s grounded in the cold realities of the Cup Series postseason, where playoff points offer cushion but not certainty. “Does he make the round of eight? No,” Hamlin ultimately decided, calling SVG’s odds 49/51 percent, and pointing to potential bad luck at key road courses in later rounds. The tone is less warning shot than pragmatic challenge, reminding SVG and similar rookies that every lap and every finish matters more than ever.

While Hamlin’s main prediction centers around the danger SVG faces on NASCAR ovals, there is an underlying theme of adaptation and potential redemption woven through the surrounding conversations. SVG’s journey, marked by his rapid progress from last-place oval finisher to consistent low 20s, has drawn quiet praise from established drivers and analysts.

SVG, alongside other newcomers, stands at the intersection of old-school caution and new-school potential, embodying the perpetual tension that makes every playoff run worth watching.

Denny Hamlin’s blunt critique of Bubba Wallace

At the 2025 Daytona race, a massive multi-car wreck escalated tensions within 23XI Racing, drawing a rare public rebuke from Denny Hamlin toward his own driver, Bubba Wallace. Hamlin, who is both a competitor and co-owner of the team, placed the primary blame for the crash on Wallace, sharply contrasting the popular narrative that criticized Kyle Larson’s involvement.

On his podcast, Hamlin described the incident, saying, “It looked like to me that Bubba just squeezed those two guys below him down… There was no room. So he ended up wrecking himself, and obviously a few others.” Hamlin emphasized that Larson was close but did not cause the contact, underscoring Wallace’s responsibility for the wreck that ultimately took out several key playoff contenders, including Hamlin himself.

This candid critique revealed internal fractures within 23XI Racing, as Hamlin’s approach flipped the usual blame game in NASCAR, where outsiders often bear the brunt. Wallace accepted partial responsibility. “I’ll take the blame for it. Unfortunately, Everything was going too good, too early to be true. Something was bound to happen,” he said, noting the chaotic nature of the race, but the episode highlighted the pressure cooker environment in which Hamlin’s team operates, balancing fierce expectations with mentorship and accountability.

This incident and Hamlin’s frankness add a charged backdrop to the ongoing playoff battles, where team dynamics could prove as pivotal as on-track speed.

The incident also sparked wider discussions about team dynamics, mentorship, and responsibility within NASCAR’s evolving landscape, illustrating how off-track relationships and internal pressures can weigh as heavily as on-track performance in shaping playoff outcomes.