With just one race left before the playoffs, Alex Bowman sits 16th in the standings, barely above the cut line, and only 29 points ahead of Tyler Reddick. His second-place finish at Richmond wasn’t enough to ease the pressure, especially with Daytona’s chaos looming. The superspeedway’s unpredictability means one wrong move could erase months of work. And according to Kevin Harvick, Bowman’s situation is far more intense than it looks.

Daytona’s unpredictability has thrown the playoff bubble into chaos. Tyler Reddick, once comfortably ahead, now finds himself vulnerable after a crash dropped him to 34th at Richmond. Meanwhile, Alex Bowman surged to second place, tightening the gap between them.

One unexpected winner at Daytona could shut the door on either Bowman or Reddick, only one makes it through.

Harvick’s warning ahead of Daytona Bubble week

On the Happy Hour podcast, Kevin Harvick wasn’t holding back when he labeled Bowman’s trip to Daytona “miserable,” especially when he was racing on the playoff bubble. 

“It’s miserable, it’s the most miserable thing that you can do all year. Go to Daytona on the bubble. There’s nothing else that’s more miserable than the whole season. I think that Alex Bowman, being in the position that he is, is miserable. There’s no way he’s not miserable this week because they know they’re fast enough to be in it,” Harvick said.

The lead-up is hard, but once the race starts, the clarity returns. Harvick compared that uncertainty to the situation of someone like Reddick, who may have fewer unknowns to worry about once on track, yet being under pressure as well. Bowman finished second in Saturday night’s Cook Out 400, 2.471 seconds behind Austin Dillon’s victory at Richmond Raceway.

The 32-year-old is currently in 16th place, just inside the playoff cut, with a 60-point buffer over the elimination line, but only a 29-point lead over Tyler Reddick, who currently has the highest point total among winless drivers and is therefore the driver most likely to be bumped if another new winner emerges at Daytona. The numbers clearly show why that stress is real.

Bowman rounded into contention in a race marked by tire management, and the final exchange of pit stops proved pivotal. Dillon’s No. 3 Richard Childress Racing Chevy crew brought him in for new rubber on Lap 341 of 400, briefly handing the lead to Ryan Blaney with Bowman right behind. The situation for Reddick is equally precarious.

If no new winner emerges at Daytona, a clean run with a top-9 finish should secure Reddick’s playoff spot.

No. 48 crew chief details Bowman’s blocked opportunity at Richmond

Blake Harris, crew chief of the No. 48 team, conveyed the heartache of his driver’s near-miss at Richmond Raceway. “I mean, we got a couple out there that, for whatever reason, it wasn’t a matter of not letting us go; they completely blocked us for two laps. “Unfortunately, that’s what cost us a shot. I felt pretty good about our pit strategy. We were on par to get there,” Harris said.

Indeed, traffic and time were crucial. Alex Bowman finished second after chasing Austin Dillon late and being caught behind slower cars in the final laps. The playoff landscape was drastically changed by Dillon’s triumph. “I just felt like we were kind of in a sweet spot for the speed of our car, and just didn’t work out,” he added.

Bowman is now 60 points away from elimination and holds onto 16th place on the provisional cutoff. Initially, Bowman predicted that Daytona would be a must-win situation for the No. 48 squad, but tough times for his fellow bubble dwellers would change that. “I don’t know what we’re going to do aside from going to try to win the race. Yeah, we’ll do the best we can at that and know that we’re going to get zero favors. But that’s life,” Bowman said post-race.

After the race, Bowman was informed by the No. 48 radio that points racing would not be a goal the following week. Their main goal would be to gain entry. Harris said that points had been the main objective of the approach. Bowman’s playoff hopes remain precarious heading into Daytona after being held up in traffic at Richmond, including two crucial laps behind rookie Jesse Love Jr., which cost him a shot at the win.