The desert decides everything. Phoenix Raceway, one mile of slick asphalt, blistering heat, and unrelenting pressure, is once again where a full season’s work will come down to 312 laps. This year’s Championship 4 lineup, Denny Hamlin, Chase Briscoe, William Byron, and Kyle Larson, represents four distinct storylines: experience, redemption, momentum, and mastery.

But who, statistically, holds the edge to lift the Bill France Cup?

To find out, each finalist was evaluated across four crucial metrics: overall 2025 season performance, Next Gen-era results at Phoenix, Championship 4 history, and recent form. The data points tell a story that narrows the field to a clear favorite under the desert lights.

Overall season

A championship bid begins with a season-long foundation of speed, wins, and reliability, and by that measure, Denny Hamlin stands atop the 2025 field. With six victories and a commanding consistency that has defined his Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota all year, Hamlin’s campaign has been a model of efficiency. He’s led laps at nearly every type of track, adapting seamlessly to short tracks and intermediates alike.

Close behind him statistically is Kyle Larson, who, while winning “only” three times, racked up a staggering 21 top-10s and 14 top-5s, both near the top of the series. Larson’s ability to stay near the front week after week has kept him in the title conversation even during winless stretches.

William Byron, the 2023 Championship 4 runner-up, has had another elite season for Hendrick Motorsports. With three wins and 16 top-10 finishes, Byron has shown the blend of patience and pace that championship runs require. He may not have matched Hamlin’s win total, but Byron’s performance curve through the Playoffs suggests his team is peaking at the perfect time.

Chase Briscoe, meanwhile, has been the year’s pleasant surprise. He broke through for three victories of his own and finally found the consistency that had eluded him in prior seasons. With seven poles, the most of the season, the No. 14 Ford has quietly delivered a career-best campaign, earning him his first trip to the Championship 4 in his debut year with JGR.

On the strength of raw stats, Hamlin edges the group. But measured by balance, wins, top-10s, and race-to-race steadiness, Larson and Byron form a near tie for the most complete year.

Next Gen performance at Phoenix

No single stat carries more weight this weekend than performance at Phoenix, especially in the Next Gen era, where track-specific tendencies are amplified by how differently each team has adapted to the new car.

On paper, Kyle Larson owns this category outright. Since the debut of the Next Gen car in 2022, Larson has been remarkably consistent in the desert, finishing in the top 10 in five of his last six visits there, logging multiple top-five runs. His Phoenix résumé also includes the ultimate trump card: a championship-winning victory in 2021, where he executed a perfect late-race pit stop to seal his first Cup title. Few drivers combine that level of speed and composure on this flat, technical mile.

William Byron is not far behind. The No. 24 Chevrolet has become a front-row fixture at Phoenix since 2022, often qualifying on pole and running up front for long stretches. Byron’s 2023 title race effort, where he led early laps before fading to a top-five, showcased that Hendrick’s Phoenix notebook is among the best in the garage. If the track stays cool and grip-heavy on Sunday, Byron’s smooth style could thrive.

Chase Briscoe deserves special mention here. He’s one of the few active drivers with a Next Gen-era win at Phoenix, having captured his first Cup victory there in March 2022. That experience over others could pay dividends, especially if the race turns into a strategy-heavy affair with tire conservation in play. However, his finishes since then have been mixed, ranging from top-10s to runs stuck in traffic.

For Denny Hamlin, Phoenix remains a story of “almosts.” He’s a two-time winner at the track in his career, but those came before the Next Gen era. Since 2022, Hamlin’s Phoenix average finish sits in the high single digits, solid, but not the level of control shown by Larson or Byron. In this metric, the advantage clearly swings toward Larson, with Byron and Briscoe forming the second tier.

Championship 4 experience

Pressure is its own racetrack. When the title is decided by a single race, experience under those conditions is a major differentiator.

In that category, Kyle Larson again holds the high ground. He’s the only driver in this group who has already won a Cup Series championship, doing so at Phoenix just four years ago. He’s handled the media glare, the overnight adjustments, and the weight of expectation, and he’s succeeded at the same venue where he’ll race for the 2025 title.

Denny Hamlin, on the other hand, has the most appearances in the Championship 4 without a win to show for it. He’s been here multiple times, 2014, 2019, 2020, 2021, each ending in heartbreak. That history cuts both ways. It brings a wealth of experience, but also the emotional burden of missed opportunities. If there’s a driver hungry enough to turn years of pain into performance, it’s Hamlin.

William Byron has one prior Championship 4 start, finishing runner-up to Ryan Blaney in 2023. That debut proved he could handle the spotlight and deliver speed on command. A third consecutive trip now gives him the comfort and continuity that few young drivers have this early in their careers.

Chase Briscoe, by contrast, is a complete newcomer. This marks his first-ever appearance in the Championship 4, making him the statistical outlier. While he’s composed and capable, the intensity of a one-race title showdown is an unknown variable for him.

From a purely data-driven lens, the Championship 4 experience metric again leans decisively toward Larson, with Hamlin’s longevity and Byron’s recent trial keeping them close behind.

Recent form

Momentum can’t be measured on paper, but it often decides who holds the trophy.

No one enters Phoenix hotter than William Byron. His Martinsville win sealed his Championship 4 berth and showcased both speed and maturity. That momentum echoes his 2023 playoff surge, and his Hendrick crew has dialed in setups that thrive on short, flat tracks, exactly what Phoenix demands.

Chase Briscoe also arrives in strong shape. His playoff performances have been quietly excellent, marked by solid finishes, laps led, and a noticeable lack of mistakes. Briscoe’s underdog role allows him to race with freedom, an advantage when the stakes are sky-high.

Denny Hamlin’s recent run has been steady, if unspectacular. He’s been finishing inside the top 10 regularly but hasn’t had the race-winning speed of Byron or Briscoe since mid-playoffs. Still, consistency counts, and Hamlin is rarely his own worst enemy in high-pressure finales. Let’s hope those recent mechanical issues stay away from him when it matters the most.

For Kyle Larson, recent form is the only noticeable blemish. He hasn’t visited Victory Lane since Kansas in May, and while his No. 5 has remained competitive, the finishes haven’t reflected the speed. Yet, in the playoffs, Larson’s car control and composure have kept him in the mix even without the checkered flags. History shows that when the stakes peak, like Phoenix 2021, Larson can summon his best.

The statistical verdict

When you weigh all four metrics, giving extra importance to Phoenix performance and Championship 4 experience, the numbers tilt slightly toward Kyle Larson. His combination of season-long consistency, dominance at Phoenix under the Next Gen rules, and prior championship pedigree makes him the most statistically likely driver to wear the Phoenix crown.

William Byron sits just behind him, propelled by white-hot momentum and top-tier qualifying speed.

But Denny Hamlin, apart from being the arguable favorite, remains a serious threat if the race comes down to pit strategy or long-run tire management.

Chase Briscoe, the wildcard, has already proven he can win at Phoenix and could do so again if chaos reigns.

Four drivers, four paths, but one driver has already walked this desert road and found victory at its end. If the data holds, Kyle Larson may be the one raising the Cup again beneath the Arizona sunset.