The EuroBasket 2025 tournament has been full of surprises, shaking up expectations from the very start. Pre-tournament favorites like defending champions Spain, France, and Nikola Jokic’s Serbia were unexpectedly eliminated in the group stage, while teams like Germany and Türkiye have surged forward with dominant, undefeated runs. This shift has not only changed the team landscape but has also completely reshaped the conversation around the tournament’s Most Valuable Player award, which many assumed would automatically go to global superstars like Luka Dončić or Giannis Antetokounmpo.

However, while Giannis is still fighting for the gold medal for Greece, even Slovenia and Luka Doncic have now been knocked out. And while the latter has put up historic individual numbers, Slovenia’s quarter-final defeat at the hands of Germany has opened the door for other candidates. This has allowed two particular players, who have been the engines of their respective teams’ incredible success, to surge into the MVP conversation. Their combination of stellar personal stats and team achievements has made them serious contenders to potentially outshine the biggest names in European basketball when the final awards are handed out.

Franz Wagner: Germany’s rising star

Franz Wagner has transformed from a promising talent into Germany’s undeniable leader on their quest to win EuroBasket. The Orlando Magic forward has been the model of efficiency, shooting over 48.4% from the field while averaging more than 20 points per game for the defending World Cup champions. His performance has been crucial in guiding Germany to the semifinals with a perfect record, where they have looked like a perfectly oiled machine.

Wagner’s most defining moment came in the tense quarterfinal victory over Slovenia and Luka Dončić. Despite an off shooting night where he went 5-for-17 from the field, he demonstrated incredible composure and a star’s mentality by getting to the free-throw line at will. He made 13 of 14 free throws on his way to 23 points, including a clutch fourth-quarter jumper that sealed the game and ended Dončić’s tournament.

Till date, Wagner has averaged 21 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists with an overall 55.1% efficiency on two-pointers and almost 30% efficiency from beyond the arc. He has shared the primary playmaking and scoring duties with fellow NBA veteran Dennis Schroder, who may as well be a candidate for the tournament MVP alongside Wagner, for Germany. Schroder has gone at 20.1 points, 5.9 assists and 3.3 rebounds, and it is the fact that Wagner has come up clutch on multiple occasions that we believe he has a higher chance of winning the MVP award, as things stand.

His impact wasn’t just offensive. Wagner also used his size and strength to take on the tough defensive assignment of guarding Dončić in the second half, using his fouls strategically to make every basket difficult. This two-way versatility, coming off a career-best NBA season, has made him the cornerstone of a German team that looks destined for the final. Especially if they win the tournament, Wagner may have a very straightforward run at the MVP title.

Alperen Şengün: Türkiye’s dominant force

Alperen Şengün has been nothing short of a revelation for Türkiye, putting together one of the most complete individual campaigns in the entire tournament. The Houston Rockets center has averaged 21 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists per game, leading his team despite the lack of NBA-caliber talent around him.

His signature performance was a historic triple-double in the quarterfinals against Poland. Şengün finished with 19 points, 12 rebounds, and 10 assists, becoming the youngest player in EuroBasket history to achieve this feat. This was only the sixth triple-double ever recorded in the tournament, and it marked the first time two have been achieved in the same edition, after Luka Dončić’s earlier one.

Şengün He ranks third in efficiency rating behind only Luka Dončić and Antetokounmpo, but his true value lies in his incredible shooting efficiency, as he has converted over 64.1% of his two-point attempts while going at 37.5% from beyond the arc. His leadership has been the driving force behind Türkiye’s first semifinal appearance since 2001, proving he is much more than just a stat sheet stuffer.

The MVP race has tightened significantly because team success is a crucial factor, and both Wagner and Şengün have delivered exactly that. Germany’s perfect 5 wins record with a stunning average of 102.3 points per game- best so far in the tournament. Similarly, Şengün has led Türkiye to a 5-0 group record of their own, making them one of only two undefeated teams left.

Statistically, both players excel in the advanced metrics that often decide these awards. Şengün ranks third in efficiency rating (31.4) while Wagner sits eighth (24.4), but both have maintained superior shooting percentages and overall team impact compared to many of their peers. Their emergence also brings a compelling narrative factor; they are the exciting new faces outperforming expectations and challenging the established hierarchy of European basketball.

While Giannis Antetokounmpo remains a formidable candidate with eye-popping averages of 29.8 points on 70.2% shooting, his path has been slightly rockier. Greece’s journey to the semifinals included some closer contests, which may hurt his case when compared to the smooth and dominant campaigns orchestrated by Wagner and Şengün for their respective national teams.

Wagner and Şengün have successfully inserted themselves into the MVP conversation through a blend of individual excellence and unparalleled team success. Wagner has shown a clutch gene and a two-way impact that embodies a true leader, especially in his team’s biggest game against Slovenia. Şengün has achieved historic milestones and delivered consistent, dominant performances night after night.

However, much will depend on who actually ends up winning the tournament. If that proves to be Germany, Wagner can be expected to beat out competition unless a miraculous performance from Schroder becomes apparent. On the other hand, Greece emerging as the gold-medalists will  lead to Giannis obviously winning the award, and the same appears to be true for Turkiye.

Their rise signals a potential changing of the guard in international basketball. At just 24 and 23 years old respectively, Wagner and Şengün are not just having a great tournament; they are announcing themselves as the new cornerstones of their national teams for years to come. As the semifinals tip off, these two dark horses have the perfect opportunity to solidify their MVP cases and prove that the future of European basketball is in very capable hands.