For six straight years, the Warriors have circled Giannis Antetokounmpo like a dream they just can’t quit. Every time the Bucks stumble, the same hope flickers: Could this be the moment? Sam Esfandiari nailed it on the “Light Years” podcast: “Giannis has officially reached like the girl you had a crush on in high school, but you’re pushing 40 status for me… I’m over it. But then you find out it’s a possibility and you’re like, oh… but let’s see what’s up.” Now, with Milwaukee facing real instability, that familiar cycle—rumors, restraint, and reluctant optimism—is starting all over again.

The bad news for the Bucks is, well, pretty terrible. Superstar point guard, Damian Lillard’s contract has been bought out. They just lost their starting center and key defensive player, Brook Lopez, who signed a two-year, $18 million deal with the Los Angeles Clippers. And even though they managed to keep important role player Bobby Portis, losing Lopez and waving Lillard are huge blows. As the “Light Years” crew pointed out, they’ve completely “over-leveraged” themselves. They have no draft picks left and “nothing left in the war chest.” It’s a situation that has the whole league sensing an opportunity. As ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne put it, the Bucks are holding a weak hand at the poker table. “This is like Jack Ten off suit,” she said. “But sometimes you hit a flop.”

The tricky part for the Warriors is that the Bucks always seem to get lucky. A few years ago, when it looked like Giannis might want to leave, they somehow pulled off an amazing trade for Jrue Holiday and then won a championship. Last year, when they seemed to be out of options again, they made a huge deal for Damian Lillard. It’s this history of pulling off surprises that makes the Warriors’ patient approach so frustrating for their fans.

And right in the middle of it all is the connection between Giannis and Steph. Everyone knows these two superstars really admire each other, and they’re not shy about showing it. Just last month, Giannis was on a podcast calling Steph the “best player in the world” and the “best shooter of all time.” It’s these kinds of comments, these public displays of affection, that keep the speculation going. As Esfandiari guessed, “Every time Giannis gets into a situation he’s unhappy with on the Bucks, he shoots a text to Steph. And then they’re like, “Do you see that? Do you see what he said to Steph? Don’t make this trade because we have an opportunity here… to put together the perfect partnership.”

This is the tricky path the Warriors are trying to navigate. And it’s a situation that Ramona Shelburne understands perfectly. “When you have a generational superstar, how do you sleep at night? If he leaves and you didn’t do everything, and you didn’t play every card that you can play to try to keep that guy, even if it’s not the best hand,” she explained. The Bucks might not have the best hand, but they have to play it. And as Shelburne mentioned, nothing will be decided anytime soon. “My sense is just from conversations around, I don’t think anything will be decided on his end until August, September.” For the Warriors, that means more waiting, more hoping, and more being held captive by the “girl from high school” who might never say yes.

The Giannis Antetokounmpo ultimatum—can the Bucks’ gamble pay off?

The Milwaukee Bucks are putting everything they have into Giannis Antetokounmpo. They’re even willing to make some surprising moves to prove it. The team is doing absolutely everything it can to build a championship team around their two-time MVP, even if it means some decisions that make you scratch your head. According to a recent report from John Hollinger of The Athletic, the Bucks are completely dedicated to keeping Giannis happy. They’ll keep doing this unless he specifically asks for a trade. As Hollinger wrote, “While the right logical move would be to move off Antetokounmpo for a fortune in draft picks and young talent… it’s not clear if the Bucks will ever choose that door without Antetokounmpo insisting.”

The rest of the league, however, isn’t convinced. In a recent ESPN article, eight anonymous scouts and executives were asked to predict the top teams in the Eastern Conference next season. What was the result for the Bucks? Just one single third-place vote, and nothing else. It’s a harsh judgment, a clear sign that the people who know the league best believe the Bucks’ moves are too little, too late.

And that puts the pressure right back on Giannis. He has always been incredibly loyal to Milwaukee, the city that drafted him and the team he led to a championship. But he has also been very clear about how much he wants to win. “I’m a winner,” he has said many times. “I want to win. As long as we’re winning, I’m good.” But what happens when they stop winning? In a now-famous interview with the New York Times, he explained his way of thinking perfectly. “I don’t want to be 20 years on the same team and don’t win another championship,” he said.

This is the tough choice he’s facing now. The Bucks have made their moves. The league is watching with doubt. And Giannis is waiting to see if their desperate gamble is enough to give him a real chance to win another championship. His loyalty is clear. But so is his burning desire to win. And for a Warriors team that has been waiting patiently for years, that’s all that really matters.