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Mar 3, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) throws powdered chalk into the air before the game against the New Orleans Pelicans Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
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Mar 3, 2026; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James (23) throws powdered chalk into the air before the game against the New Orleans Pelicans Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Despite holding a tie-breaker advantage over the Denver Nuggets, things are not straightforward for the Los Angeles Lakers. Heading into the final game of the regular season with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves sidelined, the Purple and Gold will enter the first round under-manned. Both stars have uncertain timetables for the playoffs, leaving 41-year-old LeBron James with a massive burden to carry.
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The Lakers would want to avoid losing in the first round for three seasons straight, and for head coach JJ Redick, the exit would be for the second time in a row. Last season, they finished as the #3 seed, and if they want that finish this season, a couple of probabilities would need to swing their way. With the Wolves locked as the #6 seed and the Rockets as the #5 seed, here’s how the Lakers could march forward in the playoffs.
LeBron James and Co can aim for the third seed
After losing Luka at halftime against OKC, the Lakers lost that game and all the momentum as they suffered two more losses. So, now to be a three seed, first they have to beat the tanking Jazz. Then hope and pray that the shorthanded Denver loses to the bench Spurs. With this permutation, they would jump to #3. With this, they would draw the Minnesota Timberwolves, just like last year in round one, and then a likely matchup with the Spurs in round two.
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For now, it looks like the Lakers are going to play most of their team against the Utah Jazz. The latest injury report has only LeBron James and Jaxson Hayes listed as questionable, as Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves remain out. Hayes has missed the last three games with a foot ailment. Bron can feature for limited minutes as Utah has put eight players out for this matchup. If things go their way, Anthony Edwards’ Wolves will stand in their way.
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Apr 27, 2025; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves forward Julius Randle (30) shoots as Los Angeles Lakers guard Austin Reaves (15) and forward Rui Hachimura (28) defend in the third quarter during game four of first round for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Blewett-Imagn Images
However, the Lakers have had the upper hand recently in the regular season. They swept or dominated the 2025-26 season series with wins of 120-106, 116-115, and 128-110. In fact, Ant-Man dropped 31 in the first game, missed the second, and only scored 14 from 2-for-15 shooting in the final matchup. They lack scoring depth beyond Edwards, and Randle’s playoff consistency continues to be a question mark.
If they progress to the first round, they might face the #2 Spurs, who will face the #7 seed with a healthy Victor Wembanyama. For the Conference Semifinals, the Lakers would be hoping to have Luka and Austin back for round two. The Purple and Gold won the first game of the matchup in November, but have lost the next three.
In the third game of the series, LeBron James, Austin Reaves, and Rui Hachimura didn’t feature. And for the final game, Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Austin Reaves, DeAndre Ayton, and Marcus Smart were not available. So on paper, we are yet to see how a fully available Lakers squad performs against the Spurs. No doubt, the Round 1 game will be an uphill battle. But if they can win, the Lakers have a better shot against the Spurs than they would against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Purple and Gold finish #4 and have a tough task at hand
The Lakers are currently one game behind the Nuggets. If both teams win, then it stays the same, and JJ Redick’s team is the #4 seed. If the Lakers lose, then the Denver result won’t factor in, and LA will face the Rockets in round one and a likely matchup with the Thunder in round two.
The Rockets had their eight-game win streak snapped on Friday by Minnesota. Despite the addition of Kevin Durant, the team has looked on the brink of a meltdown multiple times. The Lakers have won the series 2-1, 124-116, and 100-92 in March; the Rockets won 119-96 on Christmas. So, LeBron James and co. have the edge in recent meetings. Because Houston has shown poor late-game execution & high turnovers. In fact, they have even struggled in clutch situations.
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Mar 18, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic (77) dribbles against Houston Rockets forward Jabari Smith Jr. (10) in the second quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
That’s why many fans are leaning towards the Lakers losing to the Jazz and facing the Rockets with better odds to progress. But the thing to note is that awaiting them in the Conference semifinals would be the current champions. There is no matchup where OKC feels like an underdog. They are No. 1 offense & defense in many metrics, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (MVP candidate), Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and a deep bench. Against the Lakers, they have truly been dominant and won the series 4-0.
In that series, OKC won by a combined 117 points in four matchups. So, the Lakers would need heroic LeBron/Luka/AR performances and health miracles to steal a series. Thunder’s regular-season dominance and playoff experience make them a nightmare second-round opponent.
Apart from going on any run, the reality is the missing pieces. Luka Doncic, the NBA’s leading scorer at 33.5 points per game, and Austin Reaves, 23.3 points, have not played since April 2 due to a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and a Grade 2 oblique strain, respectively. With both stars out for the regular season and LeBron at 41, fans are pessimistic about advancing far either way. That’s why many prefer the Wolves/Spurs bracket for a more winnable second round if they survive round one.
