The Milwaukee Bucks are hanging by a thread. After two straight first-round exits and an aging core built around Giannis Antetokounmpo, the franchise has gone all-in again. But this time, the move wasn’t splashy…it was risky.

By waiving and stretching Damian Lillard to sign Myles Turner, the Bucks may have sealed their fate not just for this season, but possibly for the entire Giannis era. However, Milwaukee’s front office didn’t make this decision lightly. General manager Jon Horst has said again and again that this was about now versus the future. But sometimes, choosing the now can doom both.

Jason Timpf put it plainly on Hoops Tonight. He understands the Milwaukee Bucks’ decision to waive and stretch Damian Lillard’s contract in order to sign Myles Turner. A last-ditch effort to stay competitive with Giannis Antetokounmpo still on the roster. But once a team lets go of a superstar like Giannis, they fall into what he calls “the purgatory of rebuilding.” A long, uncertain, and often painful process filled with failed draft picks, missed opportunities, and years of irrelevance. He emphasizes that this kind of rebuild can take a long time and doesn’t guarantee success.

So, while he doesn’t agree with the move from a competitive standpoint, he empathizes with the logic behind it: the Bucks are trying to avoid that dark period by giving it one more shot with Giannis while they still can. They waived and stretched Damian Lillard’s massive contract, brought in Myles Turner, re-signed key pieces, and even added Cole Anthony. It wasn’t a careless move, still it was calculated. However, it’s ultimately futile. Timpf notes that a real path for Milwaukee to become a true title contender in the next couple of years is impossible, with Myles Turner as the second-best player. He emphasizes the importance of “self-awareness,” urging fans and the franchise to ask a tough but honest question: “Do the Bucks have a realistic path to true championship contention in the next two years?” And his answer is, “No, they don’t.”

Even with Myles Turner, a top-tier rim protector and decent stretch big, as Giannis’ new running mate, Milwaukee just doesn’t have the juice. Turner is a solid player, averaging 15.6 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists last season. But he was the fifth-best player on a Pacers team that lost in the Finals. “Just in sheer talent, if he’s your second-best player, you’re not going to go very far.” The Bucks have painted themselves into a corner. They stretched Damian Lillard’s $113 million deal over five years; they’ll eat $22.5 million in dead cap every year. And all for a good, not great, player to ride shotgun with Giannis.

Even Timpf admits it: “Even if they were to package a first-round pick with A.J. Green and one of these other salaries at the forward spot…I just don’t think they’re close to contending. Which means they’re destined for a rebuild.” Even if the Bucks manage to bundle a first-round pick, A.J. Green, and a contract like Kyle Kuzma’s, they still wouldn’t land a top-20 or top-25 player. That’s the caliber of talent you need to build a legitimate contender around Giannis. So while the front office is acting like a team still chasing a title, the truth is that they’re already on a gradual path to tearing things down. They just haven’t accepted it yet.

Golden State is waiting as the Bucks’ window closes

Things for the Bucks have just gotten worse, and the rest of the league sees the writing on the wall. Especially the Golden State Warriors. While the Warriors have done almost nothing this offseason, no signings or trades, reports suggest it was all because they’re quietly holding on to every asset in case the Giannis sweepstakes begin. As one source told NBA reporter Keith Smith of Spotrac, “We have no indication that anything is really changing as far as our relationship with the player we think is the best in the world.”

Publicly, the Bucks are saying all the right things. But executives across the league are positioning themselves for the possibility that Antetokounmpo decides to move on, and soon. In San Francisco, the Warriors are being meticulous. They haven’t touched Jonathan Kuminga, their most valuable trade chip…and for good reason. According to The Athletic, the Warriors are holding off on signings like Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton because the Kuminga situation is the key domino.

“There’s another reason why the Warriors don’t want to give Kuminga away for less than his full trade value: Like every other smart team, they’re trying to maintain every asset they’ve got so they’re ready once and if the Giannis Antetokounmpo market heats up.” The Warriors are hedging on Giannis. They know that if Milwaukee stumbles out of the gate this season, things could turn ugly, really fast. Giannis has no no-trade clause. He’s signed through 2028, but he’s also 30, and he wants to win now. This isn’t just about one offseason. This is about the Bucks’ identity — and their future.

They chose to waive and stretch a Hall-of-Fame guard for a chance to add a borderline All-Star big man. They chose to mortgage their cap flexibility in 2029 to try to squeeze out one more run with Giannis. But as Jason Timpf said, “I admire the effort. I just think it’s way too little, way too late.” Meanwhile, the East is rising. Oklahoma City, Houston, San Antonio, and Detroit are all loaded with young talent. Whereas Milwaukee is clinging to a window that may already be closed.