The business side of the NBA is rarely simple, and few cases illustrate that right now better than Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks. While his peers like Luka Doncic and De’Aaron Fox have inked lucrative max extensions, Young, the heart of the Hawks’ offense, remains in limbo. He’s been eligible for a new deal since last month. But let’s just say the Hawks’ front office has been conspicuously silent. Unsurprisingly, this delay has not just led to a palpable sense of disappointment from Young but also has prompted insiders to decode a complex situation that extends far beyond simple contract negotiations.

The central issue at hand is the four-year, $229 million max extension that Ice Trae is eligible for. Yet, as the weeks have ticked by, the likelihood of that deal getting done this summer has dwindled. As Brad Rowland, host of the Locked on Hawks podcast, put it, “From what I have heard, the Hawks are unlikely to give Trae the full 4-year, $229m max this summer before the season starts.” He backed up his claims by citing Brian Windhorst of ESPN, who stated on a podcast, “that Atlanta just won’t do it.”

This isn’t just a matter of tough negotiation. It’s a strategic move by Atlanta. The team is clearly sending a signal, one that’s hard to ignore. It suggests they have doubts about committing a massive portion of their future salary cap to a player whose on-court brilliance has not consistently translated into team success since their surprise Eastern Conference Finals run in 2021. For all his jaw-dropping numbers, the Hawks have failed to win a playoff series in the four years since.

Compounding Young’s frustration is his own dedication. The 26-year-old has been putting in the work this offseason. He went as far as skipping a Jordan brand event in Greece, so he could spend more time with the players during the Summer League to convince players to join him in Atlanta. The 4x All-Star even used social media to voice his opinion on contract standoffs, tweeting about the importance of paying players early.

In fact, his hourglass emoji on X, once thought to be a sign of an impending deal, now feels more like a ticking clock for a team he has given so much to.

The complex calculus behind Atlanta’s hesitancy with regard to Trae Young

Believe it or not, the front office’s delay is more or less a careful, calculated gamble on their superstar’s future rather than an act of malice. How, you ask? Well, Rowland has listed quite a few factors that will give you an idea. First, they have Young’s “bird rights,” which means they can still offer him a larger contract than any other team next summer. Like it or not, this gives them a significant amount of leverage and buys them time.

The team also understands the nuances of the market. Rowland noted that “there hasn’t been a screaming market for Trey in trade talks and they know that, too.” Most crucially, the Hawks are weighing the long-term commitment against the realities of a player’s career arc. While Trae Young is a dominant offensive force, the age factor for small guards is notoriously tricky. As Brad Rowland cautioned, “Trae is younger than Fox, but he’ll still be over 30. And the aging curve of small guards, unless you’re Chris Paul or John Stockton, is not the best.”

Unfortunately, all these factors leave the Sooners alum in a disappointing waiting game. As ESPN insider Marc Spears said during the Tuesday episode of NBA Today, Trae Young is “disappointed” over the delay with the contract extension. “What I’m hearing now, at this point—and you can tell by Trae’s tweet, and I saw him during the Finals—I think he’s disappointed that it hasn’t come, it hasn’t been offered.” He added, “Don’t be surprised at this point if he plays this out, and sees what happens next summer.”

While the full max may be off the table for now, there is still hope. The team could offer a two-year or three-year max, or a four-year deal at a slightly lower figure, creating a more flexible and team-friendly path forward—a scenario that would be a reality check for Young but could also be the best-case outcome for both sides.