For weeks, the Golden State Warriors have been stuck in a self-imposed limbo. While the rest of the league has been making moves, the Warriors’ offseason has been defined by a frustrating stalemate with restricted free agent Jonathan Kuminga. The standoff has put all of their other plans on hold, most notably their pursuit of veteran big man Al Horford. The deal has been seen as a near certainty for weeks, but the delay has created a new, unexpected problem, one that could see the Warriors’ top target walk away from the game entirely.

The trouble all stems from the Kuminga situation, a standoff that has only grown more tense. The Warriors have reportedly rejected “lowball” offers from teams like the Sacramento Kings, while Kuminga’s camp has given the “silent treatment” to the Warriors’ own two-year, $40 million offer. As Sam Amick on the Plus Minus Podcast put it, “It’s a puzzle where the pieces aren’t fitting together.” And that puzzle is now jeopardizing their entire offseason.

The first casualty of this stalemate could be their top target, Al Horford. The deal has been seen as a near certainty for weeks, but the delay has created a new, unexpected problem: Horford might just retire instead. According to NBA insider Sam Amick, the prolonged wait has introduced a new variable into the equation. “The Al thing is unique because, you know, I don’t know exactly where his head is at right now, but retirement has still been on the table,” Amick revealed. “Does he want to go out and do this thing every single day for whatever year that would be?”

Moreover, Horford himself has been non-committal which is obviously a recent shift in tone from his previous statements about playing as long as he felt good. The Celtics’ playoff exit seemed to have changed his perspective. “It’s just too soon” to talk about his future, he said. “I’m going to take some time here with my wife and my kids… there’s still a lot for me to process.”

It’s a concerning development for a Warriors team that has been banking on Horford to shore up their frontcourt. As Amick put it, if he chooses retirement over one last run in the Bay, it would be a “big miss” for the franchise. But while the Horford situation is a waiting game, the future of another key veteran, NBA champion Gary Payton II, is also uncertain. According to Amick, the market for role players like GP2 has been “brutal” this offseason, a reality that has left him with limited options.

“GP2 is a fascinating one,” Amick said. “I don’t know what else he’s looking at. But, you know, that seems like a player like that could be backed into a corner. And even if he wasn’t planning on coming back, maybe coming back.”

Golden State holds Payton in high regard for his defensive versatility and small-ball fit within their system. He played a vital role during their 2022 championship run, earning praise for his relentless energy, on-ball defense, and ability to disrupt opposing guards at the point of attack.

That said, bringing him back isn’t a simple decision. The Warriors are operating above the tax line, and with the new CBA imposing stricter financial penalties, roster flexibility is a top priority. While they value what Payton brings, re-signing him under the current cap constraints becomes a much trickier proposition — especially when balancing future luxury tax bills and younger talent development.

It’s a tough spot for a fan favorite and a crucial part of their defensive identity. The slow market could force him back to the Warriors on a team-friendly deal, but the uncertainty is just another symptom of the front office’s difficult summer. 

Why the Warriors must solve the Kuminga problem before signing Al Horford

While the Warriors are dealing with their own internal issues, the Kuminga stalemate is having a ripple effect across the league, holding up the plans of multiple other teams and players. The reason? The complex and punitive rules of the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement.

As veteran NBA reporter Tim Kawakami explained, the Warriors are trying to avoid the dreaded second apron of the luxury tax. If they use their taxpayer midlevel exception to sign Horford or another free agent before the Kuminga situation is resolved, they would trigger a “hard cap,” severely restricting their ability to make other moves. “GSWs want to avoid that until they know what the Kuminga number is,” Kawakami wrote on X. “So a Kuminga resolution has to come first, if possible. That sets the framework for the other moves.”

That “framework” is now holding up the entire free-agent market for big men. According to insider Brett Siegel, Horford’s decision is creating a “cooling effect” for other available centers. “If, by some chance, Horford decides he no longer wants to wait on the Warriors and he ultimately retires or joins another team, Trey Lyles and Chris Boucher would become backup plans for this team,” Siegel explained. “Until Horford signs, these two are forced to wait in free agency.”

And the domino effect might not stop there. There are whispers that the Kuminga saga could be the key to unlocking a major move for another All-Star: DeMar DeRozan. According to a reports, if the Sacramento Kings are able to acquire Kuminga, they would then look to trade DeRozan to a contender. It’s a complex web of interconnected moves, a high-stakes game of chess where every team is waiting for the first piece to fall. And right now, that first piece is Jonathan Kuminga.