UConn, Purdue, Houston or North Carolina? Experts Discuss Which Team Can Be the Victim of a Cinderella Story at This Year’s March Madness

Published 03/21/2024, 1:51 PM EDT

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After the culmination of an eventful Selection Sunday, we now have a fair bit of an idea about every team’s path in the March Madness. The rankings provided to the respective programs also provide further inputs on which team garners the best odds of advancing through. However, just like any other season, this year’s March Madness might produce some surprising results in the opening round of the tournament.

To evaluate this odd-defying outcomes, experts get together to present their picks. While one believed that UConn would carry on the 17-year tradition of not winning back-to-back championships, others predicted a last-year repeat for Zach Edey and Co.

Can UConn get past their opening hurdle of the March Madness?

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In the Tuesday Evening Edition of The Field Of 68: After Dark, Rob Dauster had a talk with Kevin Sweeney and Tyler Hansbrough on the probable first-round upsets. Going first, Sweeney had some trouble stating his choice. Then he went on and said, “I think I’ll take Stetson because they have two guards who fill it up like crazy. If Jalen Blackmon goes for 40, you’re in for a game. I know it’s crazy, but if I had to take one I probably take Stetson. I think the most dangerous of the 16.”

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Defending champions UConn is set to take on the Hatters in their inaugural NCAA game. The clash will take place in Brooklyn on 22nd March. Stetson is coming off a fresh 94-91 victory against the Austin Peay Governors in the ASUN Championship Final. On the other hand, the Huskies have ended their pre-tournament campaign with a Big East championship win over Marquette. Anyhow, even with an impressive 22-12 record so far, ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives them a 1.3% chance of upsetting the national champions.

Meanwhile, the other panelists didn’t seem to agree with Sweeney and had something different in mind.

Will history repeat itself for Purdue?

Moments later, Dauster shifted his attention towards Tyler Hansbrough’s insights on the subject. Hansbrough contributed to the discussion by saying, ” I guess I would have to roll Purdue because they have done it before. If they can find a way to get Edey somehow, get him out on the floor to guard the wings. Maybe Purdue because they have shown that in the past. That would be my only guess.” 

Apparently, the Boilermakers have succumbed to something like this in their previous season. They were knocked down 63-58 by Farleigh-Dickinson in the Round of 64 despite winning the regular-season and postseason tournament championship. This time around, they will be square off against Grambling in their opening round fixture. While the Boilermakers are low on momentum following their semi-final loss to Wisconsin, the Tigers are riding high after they grind their way through an overtime thriller against Montana State. Nonetheless, ESPN predicts a 99% favorability of a Purdue win.

At last, it was Rob Dauster’s turn to put forth his choice. Like Tyler, he also thinks that Purdue will pack their bags in their opening game of the Midwest region. Although, he favored Montana State to do the job this time.

After reviewing these two regions, let’s have a look at whether the remaining two No.16s stand any chance against the top-seeded squads.

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An analysis of the remaining regions

The South region has the Houston locking horns with Longwood. The Cougars faced a humiliating Big 12 Finals defeat against Iowa State. At the same time, the Lancers won the Big South Championship by defeating the UNC Asheville Bulldogs in the Finals. Still, they stand a 1.4% chance against Houston according to ESPN’s matchup predictor.

Moving towards the West, North Carolina is the flag bearer of this region. The Tar Heels faced a similar fate in the ACC championship game against NC State. They lost the Finals 84-76 while their opponents the Seahawks have earned the right to face them by taking down Howard in their West Region First Four matchup. Yet, the Tar Heels are estimated to win the game as they are favored by 98.7% in the predictor.

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We are just moments away from the first-round matchups, it will be exciting to see which of the above predictions come true. While every underdog can produce a Cinderella story, ignoring the firepower and the might of the top seeds would be foolish. Yet, there is no denying that the fans can witness an evenly matched contest very early in the tournament. Moreover, there is no telling how good or bad a team can perform on a given day. We can only wait and watch what the future holds for them.

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Written by:

Shahryar Fazal

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Shahryar Fazal is a senior NBA writer at EssentiallySports. His specialisation lies in his scrupulous Live Coverage of the events like NCAA and WNBA tournaments. A former sportsman himself, Shahryar used to contribute stories for publishing houses like TOI before taking up American sports as his field of interest.
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Edited by:

Bilal Handoo