“Arch isn’t going to do that. He’ll be at Texas (in 2026).” That’s just one statement about Arch Manning’s 2026 NFL draft decision coming from his grandfather, Archie Manning. And within hours, it spread like wildfire throughout the college football world, with analysts like Field Yates removing’ young Arch from their 2026 expected top NFL draft players. However, as it happens, within days, young Arch himself refuted his grandfather’s statement, saying, “I don’t know where he got that.” The result is, people are treading cautiously about Arch’s take, with one NFL QB analyst’s brother declaring the young Manning isn’t worth a first-round pick.

If last season is our reference to judge Arch Manning, we have already seen his exceptional pocket presence for his age, maintaining composure under pressure while also keeping his vision downfield. Moreover, Arch’s throwing motion, which has a quick and efficient release, is obviously the product of his genes passed down by the ‘Manning’ family that helps him cover every blade of grass. So, can all of these traits, among many others, guarantee Arch Manning the coveted top-five pick?

Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers’ brother, Jordan Rodgers, in a recent video, talks about Arch Manning’s “hype vs reality” and isn’t quite impressed with what he has seen on the tape. “The height doesn’t match the tape. There are good things and there are some good things, but the tape to me doesn’t tell you got a first round draft pick or a top ten or a number one overall, drastic or a Heisman hopeful. I think he’s going to go to Ohio State, and he’s going to struggle because he hasn’t played anybody,” said Rodgers. But the ESPN analyst didn’t stop at that.

Rodgers pointed to Arch’s struggles against Georgia last year, where he “looked out of place.” Moreover, the two games that Arch played extensively against UTSA, Mississippi State, and Louisiana Monroe were the “worst defenses” in the SEC, according to Rodgers. The take is sharp and polarizing, and that is showing its effects with people reacting sharply and even supporting Rodgers.

Fans’ opinions are divided on Rodgers’ polarizing take

Maybe Rodgers’ take is due to the deep QB class we are getting in the 2026 NFL draft that already has top names. For starters, Cade Klubnik, LaNorris Sellers, and Garrett Nussmeier have already sealed a top-5 place in most of the early mock drafts. Other names like Drew Allar, Carson Beck, Fernando Mendoza, and John Mateer feature sporadically in first rounds in various drafts. And mind you, all of these QBs have seen extensive game time of at least one full season of being a QB1. That’s the reason people reacted sharply to Rodgers’ verdict.

One of the users wrote, “What tape? He has barely played. Who is this guy?” While another user pointed to the example of Vince Young getting a similar verdict to Arch Manning. “While I agree with him on the tape aspect, look back at players like Vince Young, his early tape was not great/consistent, but then look where he got quickly after being named QB1.”  Of course, the concerns are valid.

Arch Manning featured as a starter in two games last year after Quinn Ewers was sidelined. He was still being used mainly for mop-up duties behind Quinn Ewers, and that had a bigger bearing on his performances. Coming in this year, though, the first game against Ohio State on the road isn’t an ideal situation for Arch, but if the Manning name is our reference. Then we can see him put in a decent performance against Ryan Day’s defense. And that’s exactly what one user pointed out, supporting Rodgers’ statement.

“He’s right, Arch needs to perform against big-time teams. That’s what a true #1 pick or Heisman does,” wrote the user. While another user was a bit blunt with his take. “He’s not wrong because there’s barely any tape, and it’s mostly in garbage time against garbage teams.” The message seems to be simple, even with the ‘Manning’ name, Arch still has a lot to do.

For instance, the QB tends to rely on his arm too much, sometimes trying to force throws in tight windows. This leads Arch to avoid safer options, like giving away the fight for the third down or scrambling a bit. Moreover, there are also concerns about his performances against complex defenses where full-field reads at game speed are needed. That should come this year, but last year we saw it causing some problems against Georgia. The verdict?

To be honest, it’s too soon to declare Arch Manning as a “second” or “first” round pick when we haven’t seen a full season yet from him. It’s like how one user put it bluntly: “If he weren’t a Manning, we wouldn’t have heard about him!!”  That “hype” tag, because of just his name, should go, and people should look beyond his last name and for the player he is. And of course, given the talent Arch offers, we should see it sooner rather than later.