Just a month after Fernando Mendoza hoisted the bronze beauty, the 2026 Heisman buzz is already heating up. Latest projections have Texas quarterback Arch Manning falling short of the top spot, with Notre Dame’s CJ Carr taking the lead. This projection landed after Manning held a positive outlook for his 2026 return.

“2026 HEISMAN ODDS ARE HERE 🚨,” FanDuel Sportsbook dropped the list on January 20. “CJ Carr & Arch Manning lead the way 😤.”

The last time the Longhorns’ luck was favored was back in 1998, when Ricky Williams won the Heisman. 

At No. 1 stands Carr with +800 odds, followed by Manning at +850. The +1100 odds tab is shared by four players—Ohio State Buckeyes duo Jeremiah Smith and Julian Sayin, Indiana’s Josh Hoover, and Oregon’s Dante Moore.

“Arch Manning enters the 2026 season with all the ingredients of a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender,” PFSN analyst Alec Elijah wrote. “Much of Manning’s Heisman outlook hinges on Texas’ ability to retool its offensive line. Improved protection could unlock the full potential of the former five-star quarterback.”

Manning started slow in 2025, but he finished like a juggernaut. 61.4% completions, 3,163 passing yards, and 26 passing touchdowns total. After early-season skepticism, he ended the year looking every bit the elite quarterback everyone hoped he’d be. 

Manning’s debut season as a Texas starter ended on a surge. Far sharper than his early-season self, he forced Steve Sarkisian to embrace what no one could ignore: his blazing speed. Flashing past defenders like he could outrun his uncles, Manning piled up 155 career-high rushing yards against Michigan.

One of the top efficiency passers in the country, Carr, on the other hand, made waves by starting his college career against not one, but two playoff teams.

He finished 2025 with a 10-2 record, fueling a 10-game double-digit winning streak for Notre Dame. The quarterback posted 2,741 passing yards, 66.6% completions, 24 touchdowns, and just six picks.

As Manning falls short of the top billing, Paul Finebaum points to a larger concern in the college football landscape. Indiana’s title, following championships by Ohio State and Michigan, marks three straight years of Big Ten supremacy. Still, Manning could be positioned to halt that streak in 2026, according to analyst Matt Barrie.

“I’m going to be very bullish on Texas this offseason,” he said. “We finally have a real body of work on Arch Manning. They add Cam Coleman from Auburn and Raleek Brown from Arizona State. Texas is absolutely loaded, and they’re the team to beat in the SEC.”

Manning’s confidence was loud and clear as he talked about his 2026 return. 

Arch Manning is confident about his 2026 return amidst Texas’ reload

Texas just loaded the class, landing elite wideout transfer Cam Coleman from Auburn and five-star back Hollywood Smothers from NC State. Then there is the running back from Arizona State, Raleek Brown, and Wake Forest offensive tackle transfer Melvin Siani.

With that firepower, Manning is steering what could be college football’s scariest offense, and the expectations in Austin are officially sky-high.

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Yet then Manning was ready to take up the challenge. 

“I felt like I developed a lot this year, especially towards the back half, and I want to keep it going,” the Longhorns quarterback said in the pre-Citrus Bowl presser on December 28. “There’s no reason to leave. I feel like I got a lot more football left to play, and excited to still be a part of this team.”

The portal is the new cheat code in college football, and Curt Cignetti cracked it at Indiana. Texas doesn’t need a makeover, but its portal moves are syncing perfectly with Arch Manning’s rise as he nears what’s likely his final college season.