Playing without Arch Manning for the last stretch was probably not on Steve Sarkisian’s syllabus. Even though the Texas Longhorns’ quarterback might not play, his team could be anxious about the upcoming games. What if Manning fails to pass the fit certificate? If everything goes as planned, Texas would still be the nation’s top dog. Instead, reality’s been a harsh reminder that the world isn’t perfect, not even in Burnt Orange. That’s when the SEC analyst stirred up more fear for Sarkisian and co.

For their upcoming battle in Austin against the No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores, the Horns remain heavily favored to win over Diego Pavia’s team. But Manning still sits on the ‘questionable’ bench after getting hit during the Mississippi State face-off. But Cousin Shane does not buy into the narrative of Sarkisian and his boys smiling for the rest of the four games. In conversation with SEC Mike, he drops his projections, “Realistically, Mike, I’d say about 12%.”

Shane dropped the blunt take, “Mike, it’s more likely they lose out than win out. If I’m being honest…it kind of blows my mind that they’re the favorites in this Vanderbilt game, but maybe they know something I don’t.” For their upcoming battle in Austin against the No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores, Sarkisian’s boys are heavily favored to win over Diego Pavia’s team. Well, it looks like Shane is not the only one who now believes that it’s all a stumble for Sarkisian’s Texas, and they are out of the playoff race.

The Commodores are no pushovers. The No. 9 Vanderbilt kept its dream season rolling with a gritty 17-10 upset over Missouri. Despite being out-gained 376–265 and owning the ball for less than 24 minutes, the Commodores delivered when it counted. Their defense bent but never broke, holding Mizzou to short gains and sealing Vandy’s highest AP ranking since 1937 and best start since 1941.

Meanwhile, the gridiron guru and former Florida Gators head coach Urban Meyer had already served the Longhorns the bitter pill to swallow. On October 8, on the Triple Option podcast, Meyer shut the doors for playoff conversations after Sarkisian’s program suffered a 21-29 loss against Florida, “I’m guessing that, at the end of the year, it’ll be an eight, nine wins for each of these teams. And they’ll go to some bowl game and try to go again.”

About the road ahead for Texas, Meyer claimed, “They’re either going to fall off the cliff and it’s going to be an embarrassment for both places, or they’ll fight back.” ESPN’s Heather Dinich walks the same path but hopes for a turnaround. “Nothing about two-loss Texas looks good right now, including its latest injury report,” said the analyst.

A comeback would have been smooth had Manning been deemed fit. Now, what about the injury status of Sarkisian’s quarterback? 

ESPN broke down Steve Sarkisian’s Texas’ playoff odds amidst Arch Manning’s update

The Longhorns are yet to have clarity on whether Manning will be available for the next few games. After taking a late hit on a scramble, he suffered a concussion in Saturday’s 45-38 OT win over Mississippi State. Since then, Sarkisian’s quarterback has been put on concussion protocol. But here came a silver lining. 

Even though his status remains ‘questionable,’ Nash Talks Texas reported, “Arch Manning is either on step 3 or 4, both would put him with an unrestricted return to sport on Friday or Saturday timeline. Arch Manning could play this weekend.” Now that Manning’s return is 50-50, what does ESPN think about their road to the playoffs?

The trip to Athens to face Georgia is one of the season’s biggest tests for Sarkisian’s boys. Given only a 40.3% shot at victory, the team heads to Athens seeking redemption after Georgia handed them two painful defeats last year, once in the regular season and again in the SEC Championship.

For their penultimate battle, Texas will return to Austin and open the doors to the Arkansas Razorbacks, whose playoff dreams vanished weeks ago. ESPN pegs Sarkisian’s Longhorns as the clear favorite, with an 84.5% chance to take care of business.

The grand finale awaits in Austin, a true Texas showdown. They host No. 3, undefeated Texas A&M at DKR for the first time since 2010. It’s the ultimate boss battle to keep playoff hopes alive, and despite the Aggies’ perfect run, Steve Sarkisian’s boys hold a slight edge with a 57.8% chance to win. So, it will be a waiting game for Longhorns fans to see which way Texas heads.